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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (28402)	2/18/1999 6:16:00 AM
From: Michael Ohlendorf	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried: If I look at your SEMI orders/shipment chart and then compare it with an AMAT stock price chart the stock price still makes me laugh. Things have come way out of balance here. The orders while showing a slight uptrend here have barely reached August 1997 levels - the month where the downturn prior to the most recent one in August 1998 ended. In order to reach August 1998 levels, the last peak orders would have to double from here !! In August 1998 AMAT traded at $ 33, now it trades at almost $ 70 with less then half of the orders in the industry. And who tells you that the double rebound will happen over the next half year for sure. So in my view the stock has way gotten ahead of itself and needs an urgent correction to stay credible and not crash somewhere. Actually if I think about it $55 is still too high.