Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vitas who wrote (6606)	2/18/1999 2:00:00 AM
From: Bull RidaH	Respond to of 99985

Vitas, <<Elliott had a great vision, and the five wave cycle is a great observation and find. That does not mean that any part of any wave that is relevant today had to have started in 1789.>> I can't find any good reason to ignore market action prior to 1942. Many of our blue chip companies today were already thriving corporations by that time. I use 1789 because that's when organized share trading began here in the States, and data can be found going back to that point. For a look at a chart going back to the 1789 beginning take a peak at the chart in the back of William O'Neil's "How To Make Money In Common Stocks" Book. Can be found in any public library. Thanks for the link to your 4 year cycle discussion. Your comparisons of this period to other periods may ring true on the oscillator, but let me draw your attention to one period specifically to compare the past year to. Take a look at the action from the '69 peak going into the '70. Then notice the steepness of the subsequent rally, the failure of the a/d line to confirm the rally, the '71 correction (pullback) and corresponding Summation action, etc. etc. into the '73 peak. decisionpoint.com The peak in '69 matches up perfectly with our 7/20/98 peak, the bottom in '70 matches up with our 10/8/98 bottom, and the rally into '71 matches up perfectly with our rally into 2/1/99. A/D and summation action is almost identical. Notice the % gain of that 3 yr. rally without typical bull market confirming indicators... CLOSE TO 60%!!! I expect our corresponding rally to exceed that % gain by quite a bit, and to do it by Spring of 2000. Where are we now? For comparison's sake, we're nearing the end of the first leg of the summer/fall '71 correction. I was drawn to this time frame because it represents the 5th wave of the Supercycle that ended in 1973. We're in the 5th of one larger degree wave now, so you would expect similar nonconfirmation traits, along with speculative fervor never seen in the market's history. Abby Joseph Cohen is smarter than most people realize. She said ignore all bull market indicators and buy and hold for '99. She's got it nailed!! Regards, David