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Technology Stocks : Ampex Corporation (AEXCA) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TheBusDriver who wrote (5615)	2/18/1999 9:26:00 AM
From: digger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17679

Here's some past history from the KGTV timeline... sandiegoinsider.com How about 1999? Cheers digger

To: TheBusDriver who wrote (5615)	2/18/1999 9:57:00 PM
From: Ed Perry	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 17679

* Next stop =====> $12.00/sh * No I am not inhaling nor am I even smokin' – never did either, but I am watching the price and volume activity of the last week and am growing of the opinion that we are witnessing a charade. "The Tape Does Not Lie!" well maybe most of the time but maybe not this time. From 11/4/97, which I demark as the beginning of the base building period (after the last bull rally), through today, some 184% of the available float has changed hands.#1 Since that slide of 14 months was pronounced, painful and covered two tax loss selling seasons, it is reasonable to conclude that most of the old longs (holders prior to July 97) have since closed out. This leaves shares in the hands of relatively new longs (that slide was painful and complete) and new institutions as seen in the representative 13G's (we haven't seen them all yet). That sharp rise from 12/27/98 (.81) to 1/28/99 (5.62) happened, not from fundamental valuations but from the absence of sufficient orders to sell into the fast rise. Here, I am saying, that by 12/27/98, effective float was already substantially reduced from shares having already disappeared for their use in transactions. These events ended in the 4 trading days of 1/26-29 where an astounding 26% of available shares changed hands. Now, these past few days, we have a "big" sell off on anemic volume. Realize that the past days volumes match that of the days back in Oct and Nov 98 when price levels were about 1.00/sh and the range from the day's low to high was six cents! So who is selling now? Some of the newest longs (from the sharp run up) were certainly mo-mo types looking for an Internet play and probably even some day traders. OK, so let's close out these new short termers. So who's buying even these lately sold shares. YOU know who they are <vbg.>. They certainly are not J.Q. Public, he has no way of knowing even what Ampex is about (no press, no analysts, no advertisement - Ie. like it or not, still a shadowed stock). Fine. Now we have a bunch of long term investor-gambler bulls, some slow moving institutions who have committed, and from the past few days, some gracious bulls who have helped out the recent sellers by obligingly taking their offerings off their hands --- sweet guys. What's going to happen in the next month, the next quarter, the next confounded equinox when GOOD NEWS comes out? Who is going to sell their shares? Some _ _ _ _, because it hit $5.62/sh? Not me, man! On that last big run, when we were asking each other "Does anyone know something?", prices expanded by doubling more than 2 times .81 => 1.62 => 3.24 => stopping at 5.62. Pick today's close (now on even less available for transactions shares), 2.69 => 5.38 =>10.76 => stopping at $12.00/sh. OK, I'll admit that I am wrong. But I will say this. If I am wrong in this analysis, then the Internut groupies will be even more wrong than I am wrong, so then I will be Right! Think about that one. Take your time, these sentiment notions are deep stuff. #1 Float is 39.8mm of 49.7mm outstanding. Ed Perry PS: for a good business / sociological study of Internet/2 see: (note the projected dates) 207.244.112.240 PPS: if you havn't already seen these, you must check out the good Count's postings on Yahoo: messages.yahoo.com@m2.yahoo.com messages.yahoo.com@m2.yahoo.com