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To: Neal Hopper who wrote (15215)	2/18/1999 12:36:00 PM
From: Vladimir Zelener	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21342

Trey, << The RBOCs are dead they just don't know it. >> That is exactly what analysts have been saying about ATT 2 years ago. As soon as RBOCs are allowed LD ATT and MCI and Sprint will be dead, they said. We know now, that RBOCs did not get what they asked for, but in no so distant future they will. And then again the analysts will be screeming that LD cos are dead. I think that the cable/adsl battle is a side issue for RBOCs. Their main concern right now is wireless voice. The prices keep going down, making the local wireless a formidable competitor. The second lines are being stolen by wireless, the number of local voice connectivity minutes are going down and the LD crossconection fees are disappearing. Instead of going after cable business RBOCs might be better off going after wireless.

To: Neal Hopper who wrote (15215)	2/18/1999 2:49:00 PM
From: Trey McAtee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21342

neal-- >><<1) FCC probably wouldnt allow T (for example) to buy AOL.>> Any part of t that is unregulated would be out of the scope of the FCC.<< uh-uh. if its communications over the EM spectrum, its under the FCC. >><<2)the justice really would have a problem with it>>>> Are you kinding it took the justice department 14 years to figure out Microsoft.<< fourteen years ago MSFT wasnt even on the radar...and for most people neither was a PC. at that time, MSFT and IBM were working on OS2. >>First, think in the "pipe" is the RBOCs problem now. The future is not about the pipe. If you need example, the San Fransico stock exchange is trading a Bandwidth futures contract. YOU CAN"T MAKE MONEY DELIVERING A COMMODITY. The future is making money on the content and providing access to the content. << are you serious? trucking companies must not have heard this yet. and i guess owning oil tankers is a money loser too. what about the commoditization of content? the future is making money providing access to the content...isnt that what the RBOCs do? >>Second, AOL has 18 million subscribers, and you combine the access points of T,TCI,Time Warner and a possible comcast combination. you can transition many of the dail up accounts to cable modems. Even still if all of the accounts stay on the PSTN, the RBOCs are only going to get $30 tops for the pipe while AT&T and cable get much, much more. The RBOCs are dead they just don't know it.1<< and IBM and sun could merge tomorrow with AAPL, then take out MSFT. its just not going to happen, and if it does who cares. most people use AOL now because of the advertising and habit. that puts a ceiling on how much they can charge. additionally, the SW is really quite good in terms of ease of use. however, what happens when someone develops a simpler interface? i just dont get it? do you really think cable is just going to be an overnight success. the FCC may have something to say about that. good luck to all, trey