Where's Osama?
Summary:
According to his Taleban hosts, Saudi terrorist financier Osama
bin Laden disappeared from his base camp in Afghanistan on
February 13, leaving no forwarding address. Since then there
have been enough claimed Osama sightings to leave us wondering if
perhaps he took lessons from Elvis. Bin Laden's disappearance
leaves three very important unanswered questions: Where did he
go? Why did he go? And what is going to happen next? The
answers, in brief, are: Nowhere but into hiding; To deflect U.S.
pressure from his Taleban hosts; and, what has happened for
months, a continued global chess game between bin Laden's myriad
diverse allies and the forces attempting to avoid becoming his
next target. So far, at least since the African embassy
bombings, the anti-bin Laden side has done quite well. We wish
them the best.
Analysis:
Afghanistan's Taleban movement, which controls 90 percent of the
country, announced on February 13 that Saudi terrorist financier
Osama bin Laden had disappeared from his base camp near Kandahar.
Taleban spokesman Mohammed Tayyab told journalists, "He has
disappeared. We didn't ask him to leave. We don't know where he
is." The spokesman insisted the Taleban did not know whether bin
Laden was even still in Afghanistan. Not quite getting the
Taleban story straight, in an interview with the London-based
newspaper Al-Hayat published on February 16, Taleban leader
Mullah Mohammad Omar said bin Laden "left his residence in
Kandahar some days ago without telling us where he was going.
Contact with him has been broken. We think he is hiding
somewhere, perhaps inside Afghan territory." Other Taleban
sources reportedly claimed that bin Laden was hiding inside the
country with the mujahedeen group led by Yunus Khales, however
that group has denied having any contact with bin Laden for more
than seven years.
The Taleban have suffered for their hospitality, as bin Laden's
presence has guaranteed the hostility of the U.S., Saudi Arabia,
and other countries. The U.S. recently raised the stakes, when
in meetings with the Taleban, the U.S. reserved the right to take
any necessary military action against bin Laden or countries that
support him. The Taleban's dilemma is that, while bin Laden
brings little more than inbound cruise missiles to the table,
they can not get rid of him since he is a hero throughout the
region. Debate over what to do with him has divided the Taleban
leadership. The best option for the Taleban would be if bin
Laden just went away, and so, apparently, he did. Or did he?
The Taleban may claim ignorance of Bin Laden's whereabouts, but
everyone else seems to have spotted the Saudi terrorist in one
place or other. Shortly after the Taleban claimed to have lost
Bin Laden, Agence France Presse on February 13 cited a "high-
placed Pakistani intelligence source" as claiming that Bin Laden
had been sighted on February 12, on Afghan territory along the
Iranian border. The source did not specify where exactly along
the border the Saudi was sighted, nor by whom, and details of Bin
Laden's subsequent movements were unknown. Some reports claimed
that bin Laden had crossed into Iran at Torghundi in Herat
Province on the morning of February 12, a claim categorically
rejected by the Iranian Foreign Ministry. Tehran insisted that
it had not and would not allow bin Laden to enter Iran.
On February 15, the London-based newspaper Al-Hayat reported that
informed Afghan sources were "unanimous" that bin Laden was still
in Afghanistan, with some asserting that he had moved into
territory in northern Afghanistan controlled by Golboddin
Hekmatyar's Hezb-e-Islami. Other sources cited by Al-Hayat
reported that Bin Laden had sent a reconnaissance mission to the
Kiyan Valley in Baghlan Province prior to his departure from
Kandahar, and might be relocating to that valley, or to
neighboring Kunduz Province, both controlled by Hezb-e-Islami.
But Hezb-e-Islami on February 16 denied reports that bin Laden
had arrived in area controlled by the group. And Baghlan
Province, north of the Salang Tunnel, and Kunduz Province, on the
border of Tajikistan, were only recently secured by the Taleban,
and would be among the early battlegrounds of any new anti-
Taleban alliance offensive. Finally it is not certain exactly on
which side of Afghanistan's civil war Hekmatyar falls.
Conflicting reports mark him as Taleban ally and as a member of
the anti-Taleban alliance, which would likely trade bin Laden for
whatever foreign aid they could get. Hekmatyar is close to
Pakistani fundamentalists, and last year spoke at a rally to
which bin Laden was also invited, but that does not mean bin
Laden could or would trust his hospitality.
Al-Hayat also reported on February 15 that eyewitnesses to bin
Laden's departure from Kandahar claimed that he and ten
companions, including the leader of Egypt's Jihad fundamentalist
group, were escorted from town by ten Taleban guards. And
another source claimed to have met bin Laden in Jalalabad on
February 10, at which time bin Laden was complaining of kidney
pain. The source speculated that bin Laden may have retreated to
the Helmand mountains near his Kandahar base.
On February 16, an anti-Taleban alliance spokesman said that
opposition troops had spotted Bin Laden inside Afghanistan. We
assume they meant that they had spotted bin Laden alive, despite
the February 16 report of the Voice of the Islamic Republic of
Iran, which cited Pakistani news sources as having claimed that
Bin Laden was killed, and his body hidden, by factions within the
Taleban. The Taleban have, by most accounts, been deeply divided
over the decision to host bin Laden. Moreover, the Taleban
leadership already blamed rogue factions within the Taleban for
the killings of Iranian diplomats following the Taleban's capture
of Mazar-e-Sharif, a move that nearly sparked an Iranian-Taleban
war. Still, without additional information we must continue to
assume bin Laden remains alive.
Osama sightings continued to burgeon on February 17. Al-Hayat
cited a source close to bin Laden as saying that the Saudi
terrorist is now at the Tora Bora base, in the mountains near
Jalalabad in Nangarhar Province in eastern Afghanistan. The
source claimed that, "Bin Laden chose this base because he has
known it ever since 1989, when he fought alongside the Afghan
mujahedeen in repelling an offensive by troops of the former
Soviet Union on the town of Jalalabad." According to Al-Hayat,
Bin Laden also chose Tora Bora over northern Afghanistan, where
he allegedly had planned to go, because he has kidney troubles
that require treatment. U.S. Defense Department reports have
noted that Bin Laden looks ill in recent pictures taken of him.
During the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, Tora Bora was
reportedly used by Yunes Khales' Hezb-i-Islami faction.
Nangarhar is also Hekmatyar's old stomping grounds, wrapping this
rumor back into the previous claims.
On February 17, Bayan Jaber of the Iraqi opposition group, the
Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), told the
Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Rai Al-Aam that Saddam Hussein had "offered
to shelter bin Laden under the precondition that he carry out
strikes on targets in neighboring countries." Saddam has issued
repeated threats this week against Turkey, Kuwait, and Saudi
Arabia for their support of U.S. and allied forces patrolling the
no-fly zones in northern and southern Iraq. Jaber said that bin
Laden had recently settled in Iraq, and that, "If the threats are
carried out, they will be implemented by groups of Arab Afghans
whom Saddam Hussein is sheltering, in the form of bomb attacks."
Also on February 17, Dr. Abdullah, aide to anti-Taleban forces
leader Ahmed Shah Massoud, charged that allegations of bin
Laden's departure were merely a ploy to spare the Taleban from
U.S. pressure and military threats. "No logic would accept the
report that Osama went missing. He is under the Taleban's
regular and constant protection. The whole point of the report
is to ease pressure, change the public opinion inside the
country, abroad, and gain sympathy that they do not harbor
terrorism," said Abdullah. He charged that, "Osama has got a big
network with two bases in Kandahar, one in Oruzgan (Province) and
Farah (Province). His operation continues as usual. Our message
is quite clear: He should leave Afghanistan." Later on February
17, an anonymous Taleban spokesman reportedly told the Pakistan-
based Afghan Islamic Press that, "We have no specific information
about Osama bin Laden but we strongly suspect now that he has
left Afghanistan." The spokesman did not speculate about where
bin Laden may have gone.
If bin Laden actually left Afghanistan, where did he go? Iran is
an unlikely destination. Bin Laden is a Wahhabi Sunni Muslim,
and so is ideologically opposed to Iran's Shiite Muslims. He is
also an ally of the Taleban, with whom Iran nearly went to war
last year. Finally, support for his militant activism would
exacerbate the conflict between moderate Iranian President
Khatami, who is attempting to normalize relations with Iran's
neighbors and the West, and conservative Iranian religious leader
Ayatollah Khameini.
Iraq, too, is an unlikely destination. Saddam Hussein may want a
terrorist tool, and be willing to absorb a few more cruise
missiles to host one, but even bin Laden would not trust Saddam
farther than he could spit. Bin Laden is ideologically driven,
and at odds with Saddam's secular agenda. Furthermore, bin Laden
would have difficulty reaching Iraq, as travel to Baghdad would
almost certainly involve crossing Iran. And despite Saddam's
proven staying power, considering the variety and tenacity of
forces arrayed against him, Iraq is not the most secure location
to set up a base.
Chechnya, Sudan, Yemen, Somalia, and the Philippines have all
been mentioned as potential destinations for bin Laden, but each
suffers from weak security and from accessibility problems.
Chechnya has offered bin Laden sanctuary, but is difficult to
reach and is under constant threat from Russia. Travel to Sudan
is risky, and Bin Laden may have worn out his welcome with the
last U.S. missile strike on Khartoum. Kahrtoum is not eager to
find itself in the Taleban's dilemma either -- hosting someone
with little to offer but incoming missiles, whom they are unable
to send away due to his heroic stature.
Yemeni factions have offered bin Laden sanctuary in the past, and
he has gone on record saying he would like to relocate there.
But Yemen is susceptible to Saudi attacks, and is under careful
watch due to its known bin Laden connections and recent threats
and attacks against U.S. and European citizens by bin Laden
linked groups. Somalia, in a constant state of anarchy, can
hardly offer bin Laden security. The Philippine military is
doing just well enough against his Muslim separatist allies on
Mindanao to make that destination unlikely. Furthermore, if
there was one place of all these options where the U.S. would be
most able to snatch bin Laden, the Philippines would be it.
One final possibility is Pakistan, where bin Laden enjoys hero
status among a large and growing Muslim fundamentalist movement.
Unfortunately for him, bin Laden can not trust anyone in the
Pakistani government or security apparatus, and would be more
vulnerable to a U.S. commando action against him in the country.
Pakistan is in a similar position as its Taleban allies, namely,
it is suffering from association with bin Laden but for domestic
reasons can not afford to be seen conspiring against him. If
Pakistan aided in the capture of bin Laden, its own
fundamentalists would riot. Islamabad just wants bin Laden to go
away, leading some to speculate that Pakistan might facilitate
his transport to another country. But bin Laden could not risk
taking up that offer.
Mullah Ismail Haqq, leader of Pakistan's Muslim Ulema Society,
which is closely linked with both the Taleban and bin Laden, hit
the nail on the head when he told Al-Hayat that bin Laden will
not leave Afghanistan "because he will not find a better place...
Bin Laden is neither weak nor stupid to leave Afghanistan and
Taleban is not that ruthless to ask him to leave."
For bin Laden, there is no more secure location than Afghanistan.
Any relocation poses a risk, both in transit and on arrival. Bin
Laden trusts no-one but his own forces and perhaps the Taleban,
and with a five million dollar bounty on his head, that is
unlikely to change. Most anywhere but Afghanistan, bin Laden is
unsafe or unwelcome. His welcome is wearing thin in Afghanistan,
but at least the has his caves. There is one last possibility,
that bin Laden has already been captured, with his continued
disappearance part of the interrogation process. That
possibility is slim. If he is still alive, bin Laden is almost
certainly in Afghanistan. And so, effectively, nothing has
changed but semantics.
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