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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (6622)	2/18/1999 9:17:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

INDEX UPDATE ================================== Heres my short-term technical readings for the various indexes: NAZ - CLASS 1 BUY NDX - CLASS 1 BUY DOT - MID RANGE SPX - MID RANGE OEX - MID RANGE BKX - UPPER MIDRANGE APPROACHING OVERBOUGHT DRG - UPPER MIDRANGE TRAN - LOWER MIDRANGE TYX - LOWER MIDRANGE APPROACHING OVERSOLD It is interesting to note that the interest rates(TYX) is already near the oversold range meaning that it would only have a few days (1-3 days) until it reaches extreme oversold and reverses back up, if it continues down. This should support an upswing today and tomorrow and if it turns back up early next week such would support further selling to start again next week. The UPPER TINE of the main desending pitchfork should be around 9350 for the rest of this week, so that should be a significant resistance. As previously mentioned, since the NAZ is severely oversold, I am expecting it to bounce and help push the rest of the market up until tomorrow. If today and tomorrow are up the DOW/SPX/OEX/DRG/BKX will get to the overbought range and possible CLASS SELL territory again, which would nicely setup another downswing to start near MON/TUE and as early as tomorrow. If the next downswing starts next week weakness could be seen for most of the week with a short-term bottom arriving around MAR 1. This possible downswing may be strong enough to to break the 9050 support area and bring it down to the 8700-8800 range. If such happens the following upswing should be contained by the UPPER TINE of the DESCENDING PITCHFORK which would be around 9200 by mid-March. Then it is quite possible that April could be the beginning of some nastinesss. For those who watch the 9-month cycle, the next bottom should come around JULY 8. The 1/3rd point of the 9-month cycle was arond JAN 8, which was also when the DOW hit its high at 9650, and the 2/3rd point will be around April 8. The common rule of thumb is that if the top of the 9 month cycle arrives near the 1/3rd point that that would imply future bearishness, and if the top arrives near the 2/3rd point that that would imply bullishness. So will the DOW be able to set new highs by APRIL, which would imply continuation of the bull market. At this time it looks bleak, since the strongest part of the market(NAZ) just confirmed bearishness by completing a cycle of LOWER HIGH/LOWER LOW. Seeya