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Technology Stocks : Newbridge Networks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doug who wrote (9718)	2/18/1999 11:02:00 AM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18016

Siemens' AGM on RealAudio/Video: netvision.de Full text: siemens.de

To: Doug who wrote (9718)	2/20/1999 7:32:00 AM
From: nord	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18016

Doug "The Industry and individual margins averaged over time are a good indicator of the market conditions. An increase indicates less competition & hence possible increase of profits." When I look at the scene I factor a variety of things into my forecasts re growth and profitability. As I mentioned I have only recently built a position in NN. I did so for the following reasons .1 The telcom market... The coming convergence of voice data and video. The tremendous growth of the www. The rollout of last mile technologies cable, dsl [pick your flavor] and wireless. Clearwire Technologies, Inc. Receives FCC Approval for Its Fixed Wireless IP Access Product Related Items February 19, 1999 -- Clearwire Technologies, Inc., today announced that its flagship wireless IP local access product has been fully tested and approved by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC). This certification assures that the Clearwire solution is in complete compliance with FCC technical standards under Part 15.247 rules, and paves the way for Clearwire to offer the product for sale in the US market. In addition, Industry Canada has also approved the product for sale in Canada. Clearwire's wireless IP access product uses a unique, proprietary, and patent-pending technology that enables the company to deliver carrier-class service over unlicensed spectrum. The technology differs significantly from other direct sequence spread spectrum or frequency hopping products using the 2.4 GHz ISM (industrial, scientific, medical) band. The FCC certification of Clearwire's air protocol under Part 15.247 validates that the company's unique approach to using unlicensed spectrum for delivering broadband data meets the rigorous FCC standards for communications. 2 the tremendous growth in the infrastructure for carrying broadband fiber, satcom and wireless ground technologies. 3 the recognition that the broadband rollout with those pieces ready for prime time would drive the switching/network companies. 4 I have known Pat for some time and have a great deal of respect for her integrity, ability to do research and separate the facts from vaporware. I began to look at the options available for networks/switching. After dd I came to the conclusion that ATM and IP would be major technologies to allow broadband bundled services. When I looked at the products available and the companies involved I became intrigued by the unrecognized value that was being created at NN. The companies revenues and profitability had fallen off a cliff. Why? Again after dd it became clear to me that NN's old core business cycle was decelerating. This combined with the acquisition and attempted integration of outside technology accelerated the loss ie it was a bad buy. This contributed to the weakness in sales overhead and the series of disappointments. What attracted to me to NN initially was TM. He is IMO a visionary..not necessarily a businessman. He IMO had bet right on ATM and broadband. He went about building IMO the best ATM solution while spinning off all these affiliates. ie give em the ball and let them run with it philosophy that with the right people can create added value. The other thing that factored into my decision was the relationship NN was developing with Siemens and COMS. Siemens has since undergone a restructuring. Coms continues to impress with Lan/PCS solutions. The final touch for me was Alan Lutz. The company (NN) had great technology but their marketing and business saavy was not up to competing with the competition. Lutz came in and reorganized the business end of the business. He resurrected the Siemens relationship which was critical for the success of NN. The net effect is that Siemens a huge global company has refocused its business on its markets in telco. They either own directly or are partners with telcos globally and contol a large percent of the end market for broadband technologies. If NN, Siemens and COMS could develop a model that offered quality procucts to that customer base then they would all have a huge market opportunity. That is where we are now. NN continues to add new product and acquire the necessary technologies to offer cutting edge network.switching..3 COM continues to wow me with their new technologies despite the risks of slowdown in older technologies and decreasing margins from others entering their space. 5. looking forward.. NN has announced lots of contracts for their packet based revenue engine of the future. The market for ATM is going to be huge and while the risks of alternative technologies always exist the likelihood of something that will prevail over ATM for the next 5 years is remote. LU and now ASND Cisco TLAB FORE are formidable competitors. When I see the competitive landscape I like NN. I like it because of its partnering its global penetration and its technology. The slowing legacy business has put a drag on margins. The shift of fab from legacy to overseas plants will help restore some margins to this fading business. Meanwhile the fab is being retooled for ATM and new fab is coming. The major R&D costs are accounted for the marketing has been spread out over global markets through Siemens COMS NN and the VAR. The governments and business are the early deployers. This is priming the sales pump. As the rollout of last mile accelerates the demand for broadband will also accelerate. The market is opening up for all who use the power of the net for information data and soon vod is upon us, I believe that NN will begin to show accelerating growth as the leagacy/new technology mix improves. The margins will be dictated by supply demand. I see the demand as exploding over the next year for ATM in excess of capacity. This is not dissimilar for the chip industry the dsp industry etc. Lots of players but with the book to bill up margins don't shrink and the b to b for ATM is exploding currently in excess of capacity but with fab capacity coming on line that will be a temporary problem. Emerging telecommunications will IMO be the next hot tech sector as it offers so much to so many. My prediction is that sales will begin to accelerate earnings and margins will follow and NN will be recognized as one of the leaders in the field as opposed to the forgotten stepchild of the street. This is all based on my perspective and is worth the paper its printed on unless of course I am right. Happy investing Regards Norden So