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To: JRI who wrote (102680)	2/18/1999 1:54:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Respond to of 176387

John, your point about a Q4 1997 sequential comparison is not quite accurate since Q4 1996 saw an even larger jump in percentage terms. But MSD's comments about the brimming pipeline render that issue academic. As for the coming quarter, I think that $5.6BB - $5.7 BB is doable, but I think the pre-tax margin will be down to around 11.5%, so I expect after tax income to come in at $451MM, or a bit less than $.33 per share. TTFN, CTC

To: JRI who wrote (102680)	2/18/1999 1:58:00 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 176387

Great Post John: I tend to agree with you that growth could accelerate again. Here is an interesting message I just picked up on the Yahoo Finance Dell thread: <<growth of 38% is a false #--------their is no slowdown by: OldYorktown (34/M/Austin, TX) 161892 of 161922 The 38% # came in only because Dell held back corporate orders to get them the pentium 3 they asked for....just good business on dells part---------handle the clients needs--- what are they supposed to do---say sorry we need to meet our revenue #'s so you will have to take the pentium 2---give me a break All that Revenue will show up in the 1st Q results------the # is false and the hype is even worse------ DELL HAS NO CRACK IN IT -----DELL MOVES ON AFTER THIS BLOWS OVER IN A 2 TO 3 WEEK PERIOD-------MORE THAN LIKELY BASE FROM HERE THEN OFF WE GO-------BUT dont tell me they are slowing because they are not-------in fact the big growth is still to come. >> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DELL has quite a ride ahead of it...there are LOTS of opinions about what kind of ride it will be. I plan to keep ALL of my shares and enjoy the ride. DELL can still prove that they are the next DELL.!!! -regards, Scott

To: JRI who wrote (102680)	2/18/1999 1:59:00 PM
From: Sig	Respond to of 176387

<<<So, I think the y-o-y comparisons (revenue) make this an even tougher quarter in some ways...>>>> Great post John, and the present est. is 32 (or 16) which is a low bar unless somebody raises it. So we know Dell can make that for the what ? 23d time in a row. Please remind me that in the last few days before that May report the stock will drop from the 60's(Hehe) by around 4 points because there are always people around to try to make it happen. Regards Sig

To: JRI who wrote (102680)	2/19/1999 2:47:00 PM
From: Gabriel008	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

John, I was sifting through postings on the thread and caught yours to Chuzz re. DELL's Q1 estimates. Let me add my thoughts to the discussion. DELL has a 100,000 unit volume carryover from Q4 [that wasn't executed in Q4] into Q1 that will boost this Q's revenues and earnings. So, when I hear DELL management talking about mid single digit sequential growth in Q1 something doesn't add up. The strong pipeline going into Q1 [app. 100,000 units] in itself is worth 7% to 8% and this doesn't include any additional sequential growth. And, we know that DELL will be very aggressive this quarter. I believe DELL management is trying to manage our Q1 expectations downward. In reality, this mid single digit growth forecast will more likely turn into mid teens growth for Q1. Here are my estimates on Q1: Unit volume....2,530....15% sequential and 58% yoy growth ASP...........$2,300....ASP decline of $50/unit from Q4 Revenue.......$5.819 billion..12.55% sequential growth over Q4 GP............$1.292 billion..22.2% GP versus 22.4% in Q4 OPEX..........$610 million....10.5% vs 10.9% in Q4 OPINCOME......$682 million INCOME BT.....$692 million INCOME AT.....$484 million Shares........1.37 billion EPS...........$0.35 CHUZZ indicated that DELL's entry into the sub $1000 would impact ASPs and margins in Q1. But, unless I'm mistaken, the sub $1000 entry is more of a Q2 or even Q3 [back to school] possibility. Do you see anything in these estimates [other than my typically bullish point of view] or in DELL's Q1 that could impact these numbers? Regards, Gabriel