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To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (48759)	2/18/1999 1:57:00 PM
From: Kenya AA	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

El: I posted that article yesterday in "redneck" - guess your "redneck" is as bad as your "cockney." <gggg> Here's one from today - it'll be interesting to see if it still holds true now that Faber and Cramer have been beating the subject it to death. K Why 3:30 and the NDX Don't Mix By James J. Cramer 2/18/99 1:07 PM ET Let's go over this 3:30 p.m. Nasdaq 100 (NDX) selling again since this will remain a hot-button issue until the NDX either crashes or the regulators figure something out. One or the other will happen. Let's say I ran an NDX fund. Hey, let's call it the National Gift Wrap and NDX Fund, a side business of my dad's. That way, these other guys can stop saying I am singling them out. After all, I am not going to attack my own father! Every day I allow day traders to come in and out of my fund. I have no fees or flip taxes or anything. I am an open door. I have to meet these redemptions daily. I think I am doing the right thing. I am pleasing my shareholders. Some talking head on some Web site or on CNBC says that I am helping to roil the market at the close with my redemption sales. What am I going to say? (a) Yep, it is my fault. I caused that nasty decline with my ridiculous redemption sales policy, so kick me! (b) Darn tootin' it's me, and I don't give a rat's behind about David Faber because I'm short the NDX anyway. (c) When you put together my fund with all of the other funds that have these stupid policies, we slay the market at 3:30 p.m. every day, and, boy, are we powerful! (d) National Gift Wrap is a small pop-and-son operator, and we couldn't start a selloff if we sold every single share of stock we own. Of course we are going to say (d). We are no morons. We don't want the government or angry readers and viewers screaming at us. We don't want to get sued. Now, let me tell you what I see. Every day, if the market is down, a couple of bozos come in and sell NDX names all at the same time, beginning at 3:30 p.m. If the NDX is down at 3:00 p.m., for example, I know National Gift Wrap and NDX Fund is going to come in and blast these stocks. I know it because it happens every day. These guys come in with their NDX future sells or their NDX stock sales, and together they cause a lot of havoc like clockwork. So what do I do if I am bidding for NDX stocks or trying to make a logical market in these stocks? Do I stand there and let myself get whacked around the head by the auto-selling of National Gift Wrap and NDX Fund? Do I lose money because of National's virtually automated predictable sales? Why should I hurt my profit-and-loss statement because of the jerks running National Gift and NDX? They don't care anyway; they're just putting through redemption sales. So, I back away. I take a walk. I go for a fruit cup. I sneak a peak at the Post sports section. I do anything but buy NDX stocks at 3:30 p.m., when I know I will be wasted by this type of knee-jerk selling. I can buy them at 3:59 p.m. when the redemptions are done. But why should I just lose money to help out National Gift and NDX? I back away and I get better prices. That's what is happening. The market-makers, the natural buyers, are just walking away. And their customers are taking a big-time powder, too. Is National Gift and NDX fund a bad actor? I don't care about the judgments. They are meaningless. I care about the process. And right now the process is corrupted by this kind of selling because it is predictable. I can figure it out. And I can walk away and let the vacuum in the NDX happen. Everybody in the Nasdaq is gaming this selling and walking away. That's why 3:30 p.m. is so dangerous. It is not that there are sellers. It is that there are no buyers! Clear?