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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alomex who wrote (25510)	2/18/1999 4:08:00 PM
From: Loring	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42771

I agree that new users with "free" WinNT is a tough battle. But what about the 50 million installed NOVL-users base? Might that have some positives to it? Have you checked out Modesto...NOVL + Intel Merced = Modesto? Another plus might be all the alliances that NOVL has built for NDS with LU, CISCO, Nortel? Another might be all the versions of NDS that are already out -- NDS for NT, for Solaris, for Linux, for you-name-it? One last argument, the leading P/E is around 30. Do I have your interest yet?

To: Alomex who wrote (25510)	2/18/1999 6:19:00 PM
From: Villemure	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

NT, like love, is not free. <<The first one is that WinNT, while in some aspects inferior, is free.>> No it's not. It turns out costing more per user than NetWare, which usually serves three to four times as many users from the same box. If you consider the total cost of managing it, it costs even more. Much more. And costs associated with rewriting applications, which will be required to take advantage of advanced features in Win2000 (presuming they exist or ever ship) will also be considerable. <<Often companies use winNT as a more stable version of Win95/98.>> NT is a very different operating system from Win 95/98. As different as Win 98 and UNIX. It does, however, look and feel the same. While more stable than Win 95/98, it is much less stable and reliable than NetWare and many kinds of UNIX. The blue screen of death is a nuisance on the desktop, but a crisis on the network. The NT Workstation on the desktop is ideal for Novell, as ZENWorks (see Infoworld Prodcuts of the Year for 1998 in the recent issue) is the best way to manage NT desktop. <<Once they buy the gray boxes with NT preinstalled it is easy to take the easy route and avoid installing Netware altogether.>> If you think installing NT is the easy route, then I can't believe you have ever installed NT. NetWare comes pre-installed on many of the same gray boxes that include NT. The user then cites an activation code over the phone and pays to have Compaq, Dell, etc. activate the operating system of choice. I've heard of OEMs discounting the price of the OS to sell big batches of servers, but this happens with all proprietary operating systems. Nonetheless, OEM pre-installs are only a fraction of NT Server and NetWare sales. ###

To: Alomex who wrote (25510)	2/20/1999 12:13:00 AM
From: PJ Strifas	Respond to of 42771

Please pardon this if it gets winded but...while I'm not a technical person in terms of how the market works (Techincal Analysis), I am much more insightful when it comes to what "people" are buying in terms of technology and how they are using it. I've noticed some things regarding Novell and it's marketing this past year or so -- Not more than 1 year ago, you could NOT get Novell NetWare pre-installed on some of the best selling servers (DELL, HP, IBM, et al) without somehow either still getting Windows NT or paying some premium for it. Now, you CAN get just NetWare pre-installed. Not only that, but these companies now specialize in developing and designing NDS and testing your apps as well. They offer more support and advice than previously available which is making things much smoother for everyone. That in itself is a great indication that these computer manufacturers see NetWare as a viable product AND their customers ARE buying it. Not just for today but for the future. [I'd venture a thanks to the DOJ for that but I'd also like to believe it has something to do with the market (demand?).] While NT on the desktop is great and in workgroups it's a wonder -- when you get past all that hype and "ease of use" rhetoric it DOES come down to some basic business standards when applying NT as a corporate solution: 1) How much does it cost to support? (TCO) 2) Can it handle what we need it do? (reliability/stability) In both cases, NetWare beats NT hands down. Let's face it, MSFT can produce all the statistics it wants regarding NT's dominance and growth. In the real world, NT is brought in to co-exist with NetWare or UNIX. In some cases, all three operating systems become integral parts of the network. Does that mean I can make the case that MSFT is losing their momentum? I'll tell you where NT kills NetWare in terms of sheer numbers and that's in the small companies -- less than 25 users, no more than 40. Here's where NT's marketing shines but I have to say, NetWare for Small Business can give NT a run for it's money technically...do Novell Resellers have the guts to go with it....that's another story. If you see that as a sign that Novell is doomed, that's your perspective. Sure, there are 100's more of these mom&pop shops than Fortune 500 companies but really, Fortune 500 companies are buying licenses in the 1000's while mom&pop's are buying them in the 5,10 & 25 packs. Nickel and dime?? <--cheap shot :) I don't know about you but as a consultant I made a good $$ proposing, then deploying NetWare into shops that had made the move to NT. You know what my selling point was? Uptime guarantees. Quality of service. There's only ONE statistic I've petitioned Gartner Group, IDC, Aberdeen and The Tully Group about -- how many companies (large, small whatever) have migrated to NT from NetWare only to reverse their decision based on the 2 business standards I've stated above. I believe that number would shock all of us. And I believe it to be in NetWare's favor. Just some thoughts on why I'm up on Novell. I can see this stock moving into the high $20's come the end of the FY if not flirting with $30. If any rumor of a takeover or buyout ever see the light of day, up that figure to the mid-$30's. If there's a more than one suitor... I know, I know...if, if, if -- But really, NetWare sales growth will make more than a few eyebrows rise short-term. Beyond 2000, the real growth will be in NDS, NDS for NT, ZENWorks and other "ZENs" from Novell. If you think this is "blue-sky" dreaming, just look at IBM. Last time I checked their bottom line, over 30% of their revenue was from CONSULTING! This is contract services that don't fluctuate like sales figures. Peter Strifas