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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rupert1 who wrote (48769)	2/18/1999 4:06:00 PM
From: John Koligman	Respond to of 97611

Hello Victor, For me, it would simply be a guess as to how close we are to the bottom on a particular stock, at which time I would buy. (The guess would be based on lots of things, such as manner in which the stock traded over time, long term price trends, market conditions, etc. etc). I don't necessarily look for confirmation of an uptrend, in fact I would prefer to buy after a prolonged downturn, on a really strong down day. I would also guess that CPQ could go below 35 pretty easily in a situation like early fall of '98. The current weakness (my guess) might be due to: 1) Dell making noise about entering sub 1k 2) Lingering concerns about channel stuffing 3) Dell weakness casting a pall over the PC market I am concerned about plunging ASP's. CPQ has said they will offer sub2k PIII systems. The 'average Joe' out there has all the power he/she needs with a 400mhz Celeron, so things will get bloodier in this end of the market. CPQ in my opinion needs to make some noise about how they are moving ahead in the enterprise and storage space. I know in the past they have said that they made decent margins in the consumer sub 1k space, but that will probably diminish as Dell comes in. That leaves the enterprise as the place to make the bucks. As for my MO, you have me pegged pretty well. The toughest thing for me is to stay out! I do also daytrade, Intel is a prime target, the stock moves 3-5 points on many days, often gaps up in the morning, and can be traded in this manner without too much difficulty. I don't get too greedy, and find that I very consistently come out ahead operating in this manner. On the downside, I also miss huge moves in stocks. Happened with Bay. I remember picking up 25k shares at 16 5/8 (what a memory huh???). Sold way, way before it topped out at 41... John PS - I really should add that I don't have a regular job as most do, so that also affects what I do in the markets. For me, capital preservation is much more important than going for the blowout. That is probably a key difference from most on this and other threads...