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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DownSouth who wrote (69)	2/18/1999 3:38:00 PM
From: Teflon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

DownSouth Thanks for the response. This is the stuff I am looking for, I am confident enough to admit I actually learn stuff from folks out here and that I do not have all the answers. One must always leave room for a "HEDGE"..... On that note, I wanted to address your comparison on NTAP and EMC. Regarding growth rates, I believe one has to focus on forward looking growth rates as the Market tends to forget historical growth rates (see DELL!) fairly quickly. I agree with your analysis of their (NTAP and EMC) respective market segments and relative competition, and I will take your word on NTAP's sales force. I only know what I have heard within the Fortune 100 clients that I have worked with, and the consensus there is that EMC is #1. Assuming, however , you are correct on your depiction of NTAP's sales force, you must also look at the general dynamics of the battle between the two ...as they begin to butt heads. Given that their products are fairly similar in quality and performance, and provided that NTAP's sales force is equivalent with EMC's, how then do we judge who will come out on top? To me, after looking at EMC's Balance Sheet, earnings power, R&D and overall management, one has to conclude that they will have a slightly easier time raiding NTAP's market as opposed to the other way around. In order for NTAP to survive as the Gorilla at the end of the day, NTAP must have everything go their way. Another MSFT success story on some level. I think they have a shot, though not a big one. And in the end, banking on them leaves you no "hedge" for misses in execution. Again, I am not saying that NTAP will not continue to grow successfully and gain market share. I just do not seeing anyone in this industry catching EMC (IBM has all but thrown in the towel) as they race for the "Gorilla" seat high above the tree tops. And I will only invest in Gorillas. Thanks, Teflon