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To: Bill 49M who wrote (17099)	2/18/1999 4:42:00 PM
From: Jock Hutchinson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

Absolutely not! Fifty percent down is much worse than 50 percent up. 50 percent up is negated by only 33 percent down. Therefore you are wrong when you write that "50% is the same, going either way, up or down." Your main point, which is that it is very unlikely that she would wins twice as often as she loses, and also hit the required parameters is really the key point, and the answer of course is that it is very unlikely that she hit those numbers in the manner that she claimed. There are many reasons for this--not the least of which is that some stocks don't move 18 percent over that quick a point in time.