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To: John Koligman who wrote (48810)2/18/1999 5:30:00 PM
From: rupert1  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 97611
 
Caught the tail end of two TA guys on CNBC. I think one was the ML guy who forecast a return to Oct 1998 lows about three weeks ago; the other was also with a big brokerage house. Perhaps someone else saw the double interview.

They say essentially the same as Accompora. The companies that make up the DOW index are doing relatively well, but something like 80% of other companies are doing badly - many are at or below October 98 lows. All the technical indicators are bad except that GE's share price is holding and the DOW is holding. If the market breaks, one of them said, it could break big, However, he also said that the market has touched a short-term bottom and is about to have a rally in a long-term correction. He thought that if there was not a sharp correction there could be a gradual correction stretching all the way into the Fall.

It is clear that they want a severe correction but they are unsure that there will be one.

Earlier there was another TA who specialises in the NASDAQ. Although he was introduced as being very negative, he started off and finished by saying that the market might be oversold in the near term and due for a bounce. INTC had been one of the first to start breaking down in January and it was now rebounding. I think it was he (or one of the other two) who said that bullish analysts had recently been at 60% and 70% and were now at 30%.

When all the TA guys agree like this and the gurus turn bearish, a bounce becomes more likely. Tomorrow is difficult because of options expiry, but next week there is a major tech investment conference by one of brokerage houses.