Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (28432)	2/18/1999 5:43:00 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Let me just say that after the sell off is over (in about a month I expect), I'll be buying AMAT, MU, and RMBS. I do believe that the down cycle is over. But the pent up demand for the semi stocks has pushed them too high too fast. Also it is possible that the recovery will not be as strong as some people expect. This may lead to sell offs that I will buy into. I expect a multiyear recovery. As always, time will tell. Good luck to all, Sun Tzu P.S. I reserve the right to change my mind and my positions in time. PPS. I don't put much weight on Lehman's report. Semies are not their thing and I don't trust analysts who think they can predict into 2002 and beyond.

To: Math Junkie who wrote (28432)	2/18/1999 5:57:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

Richard, peaking of SEMI orders would be a good sell signal - IF we could get that information a bit sooner. As it is, the data comes several weeks after the target month ends AND is a 3-month average. All this reduces its usefulness. Last time the stock peaked, in '97, there was a plateau for several weeks. But I wouldn't bet that will happen again. Gottfried

To: Math Junkie who wrote (28432)	2/18/1999 6:24:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

PC Sales in Japan Fall 25 Pct. in 3rd Week of Jan. February 16, 1999 (TOKYO) -- Personal computer sales in Japan fell almost 25 percent in the third week of January over the previous week. The Japanese PC market for individual users is having a slow bout after the end of 1998, when it was more active than expected. Spring models will be put on the market soon, so prospects are taking a wait-and-see position until the new products become available. According to data collected by GfK Japan Ltd., an information service company that deals with point-of-sales data from electric appliances volume stores, PC sales at about 2,000 such stores during the third week of January (Jan. 18-24, 1999), were down 24.9 percent in volume and down 24.8 percent in value from the previous week (See table.). Compared with the same week last year (Jan. 19-25, 1998), sales were up 33.9 percent in volume and up 29.1 percent in value. The increase of 33.9 percent in volume in comparison with the same week the previous year was the lowest after the third week of July 1998, which was just before the Windows 98 operating system was put on the market (32.6 percent). New models of iMac with more choice in colors, compact desktop models with an LCD monitor and other spring models started to go on sale in late January. PC sales at electric appliances volume stores hit bottom around this period. The average selling price rose by 472 yen from 217,983 yen (US$1,920) the previous week (the lowest level since GfK started conducting research) to 218,455 yen (US$1,923). An increase in the average selling price in comparison with the previous week was recorded for the first time after four consecutive weeks that had recorded a constant decline. GfK Japan collects POS data from 55 IT-related retail sales companies centering on volume sales stores of home electric appliances throughout Japan, covering about 3,200 stores (as of April 1998). In cooperation from GfK Japan, Nikkei Market Access gives weekly reports of personal computer sales in number and value. The volume and value of sales have been based on the data obtained from the same 41 companies (about 2,000 stores) since April 1996 so as to enable time series comparison. It is estimated that the number of PCs sold at these 2,000 stores amounts to about 10 percent of gross domestic shipment, and when limiting it to the storefront sales channel, the share comes to about 25 percent of such shipment. nikkeibp.asiabiztech.com