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Technology Stocks : PC Sector Round Table -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stitch who wrote (1449)	2/18/1999 11:18:00 PM
From: Mark Oliver	Respond to of 2025

What I said this morning was based mostly press releases. The next stage is guessing where they go from here. The rumors are many. One interesting development is between Qwest and Netscape to develop unified messaging system more or less like Portico. It's so easy to think this product will be Portico, but for whatever reason they can't or won't talk about it. Like I said earlier, Qwest is the closest partner to a rollout after the most recent announcement from the Microsoft/Qualcom announcement. Why should Qwest go into next stage market trials with Portico when they are also working on systems with Netscape unless they are the same project? Some suggest the hate between Netscape and Microsoft will kill and possibility of working with GM. Should GM position themselves with Netscape, what would this mean in the new world of Netscape/AOL and their intentions to be the one stop portal? A VUI will be a fantastic product. If GM can do something special with their agent technology to do better searches, it would be a huge advantage to a VUI format. Imagine you are out for dinner and want to see a film. With your cell phone, you do a search for a show in the area. Portico would interface to Sidewalk.com, or whatever, narrowing the candidates in a search based on; location, seats available and time. Finer searches will simplify working blind. Well, you know the city guide will be a killer app for the Internet , especially combined with basic equipment, a standard phone. It's also interesting to read interviews where they talk about online auctions or simple sales based on a localized format vs. what's available today from eBay or Onsale. Throw in GPS to direct you to the location and you've got a most amazing futuristic, practically here today. Well, after Netscape, you've also got Yahoo. They also have some sort of plans developing on the My Yahoo with a calendar/messaging format. It'll have to be more useful though if they really want to get serious. Also interesting is language. These things are not restricted to English. They've got the capability to do at least 8 languages now. Again, it's a question of having the demand. I think Portico is just the starting point. MagicTalk seems to be developing much quicker than GM estimated, maybe because the Phone companies are just too slow developing new products? GM has tried to identify the quickest way to make money with out getting too many projects going at once, hence the focus on Portico. If accepted, this would be a great cash cow. I typical power user would probably find a great help to his work spending $5 a day. If they could get 1/10th of a percent of the mobile workforce, they'd have cash coming out their ears. The past for GM is a problem. They were the enfant terrible, developing many groundbreaking technologies, but their lack of focus broke their back. They've got totally new management, and a much more focused approach. Perhaps this history of bravado has caused them to be more conservative today. I think the share price can easily pop on news, but then there has been news, great news, and the stock has not rocketed. In fact, it's be fluctuating between 4 1/2 and 8 for the last 4 months. I think it is reasonable to claim it's the convertible shareholders that are bombing the stock to gain a better position. It won't be the first time it has happened, but now it's a question of how quickly GM can come out from under this arrangement to regain their market perception. The final share conversions should be happening this month. My guess is that while there will certainly be competition developing, Portico is addressing a multi-billion dollar market, GM has a lead and they have some good partners. I often wonder how they can remain independent. I should think many companies from Motorola to Microsoft to Qwest will want control over what their technology. Certainly, a buy out would have to pay at least $4 1/2, so I wonder if there is little downside risk. 4 1/2 seems to be a support level. Should it break below this, TA might suggest it will go lower, but really it makes no sense to me. This company just seems to be involved in too many things, but... I wouldn't really think we'd have seen 4 1/2 again, so what do I know? Anyway, glad to see you guys interested. The game is afoot and this company is a fun one to follow. Of all my investments at the moment, it's the most exciting. Could be the legendary 10 bagger? Regards, Mark