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To: thomas hayden who wrote (37808)2/18/1999 8:16:00 PM
From: BigBull  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
Thomas: You didn't ask me, but I'll take a stab at it anyway.

There is a sweet spot in bull markets when just about every thing goes up, except interest rate sensitive issues,such as banks utilities, bonds, etc. This is when the economy is cooking. When the economy starts to overheat, only commodities and the stocks tied to them go up, while the rest of the market tops out, and interest rates are then in a bear market. This process usually does not occur instantaneously.

My view, is that we are coming out of the "Dead Zone" and into the "Sweet Spot" with respect to industrial commodities. But we are obviously just at the beginning. The bond market, the utility averages, and now Buffet buying chemical stocks are clear indications the "Sweet Spot" is here or immanent. You may remember when Buffet was buying Salomon, American Express, etc. everybody thought he was nuts. Well, Warren outfoxed 'em all didn't he? He will again.



To: thomas hayden who wrote (37808)2/19/1999 10:42:00 AM
From: JungleInvestor  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
Thomas,
Unfortunately, I don't know what the OSS stocks would do if oil went up a lot due to high inflation. I sold my tech stocks and mutual funds in December believing that there was a better risk/reward in the OSS than the general market which has a very high valuation (e.g., as measure by PE, dividend yield, etc) compared to historical. If oil prices move up due to inflation and the general market tanks, my guess is that OSS will do much better than the market although it may go down also. Sky high oil prices in the 70's caused the market to tank, but I was not following the oil sector then and do not know what happened to OSS stocks. Maybe someone else on this board can answer that.