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Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sector Investor who wrote (12229)	2/18/1999 11:09:00 PM
From: akmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42804

Sector-I am in agreement that the article says much about the status of the stock market during the past few years,however except for pointing out the virtues of patience,which investors in MRVC sorely need, I find very little analogous to our situation. The Buffet/Graham school of value investing would never ever be involved in MRVC at this stage. Even if we were in a different industry where technical obsolescence wasn't a factor, MRVC has not demonstrated the consistency of earnings and cash flow to merit consideration. Many thanks for your cc summary. I'm trying to model future quarterly results and need your help on a couple of items: SG&A was commented on by Glaser as coming down in Q1-do you think he meant only in absolute dollars or in %of revenues. I remember that he gave the number(16.7m) and then the % and then said that Q1 would be lower. My gut tells me he meant that total $ would be down-it would be a real stretch to bring down the % with gross declining as much as he indicated. The same type of thing applies to R & D; I think he said 8.7m for Q4-I don't think I'll be far off to use 8m for the forseeable future, what do you think? The added amortization was in Q4 so is already in the base. I will assume interest income at 5% of about 130m annually. Say that revenues step at 4.75% sequentially until Q4 when we go to 9% for a few quarters? If we start Q1 at 68m then 3c/sh. loss is probable outcome before any potential tax credits. Just for the other dreamers on the thread, it is possible to get to nearly 2.00/sh. in 2000 under this scenario. Most of us would take it right now! Best regards, Mike