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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StockOperator who wrote (6666)	2/18/1999 11:34:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

>>If not, it could be a bear rally right before the big downdraft. <<< I was slightly bullish for the short term also but I am starting to lean the other way for tomorrow. The J6P indicator that says we go up on Friday's to fool the masses has worked for the last few months but I just bumped the OEX strikes a minute ago and I don't like what I see. 3300 Puts were closed out today at 630 Strike (Almost half) and another 1600 closed at 635 strike (onlyt 278 left open). At first I thought it might be nervous writers playing it safe then I looked at the calls that were close. 500 615 calls were added and 2000 620s were added. To be fair, 1000 calls were closed around 630 but still someone is betting we wont close over 620 tomorrow and someone was real afraid that we would be below 630 enough to make it hurt. Last sale on those puts were 12 3/8 and 19 so we are not talking about small change, about $4 Million and $3 Million respectively to close those puts during a strong afternoon session that was supposed to look bullish. Maybe you guys throw that kind of money around but on my military pay, that is a few days pay. <g> I am starting to think we may not get the bounce we were hoping for after all. I haven't figured the Max Pain point yet but will post either later tonight or tomorrow what I find. The XOI is close to critical support again testing it's sept low today but could reverse here, the BKX broke through some mild resistance but is approaching the bigger resistance line and I expect it to reverse here soon around 816. The XAU Gold/silver index is testing its support for the third time in 6 weeks, the RUX is testing support for the 3rd time around 387 that if broken should fall to 370. Airline sector is sitting on support, comp software broke below support slightly, internet is testing, and chemicals are bearish. The insurance breakout mentioned below is already reading an 87 or overbought reading so it may not last too much longer. The only good thing I saw today was GAX Gaming index which I thought was bearish made a flaming arrow but there may have been a one time news event to cause the spike up as it blew away all my forks, resistance lines etc in the biggest move since October. Insurance also made a strong move. There are a few slightly bullish looking sectors but they are what ifs at best. A couple financials are not as bleak and the Supercap has it's indicators lined up for a rally. This I view in a negative light however as it may be a play to prop up the indexes while the funds sell off next week. I may all wrong and maybe all these tests of support are bullish meaning a combined strong move up to come but why are so many so close to supports and not testing resistance instead with coiled indicators. I know, why ask why? Good Luck, Lee EDIT - Thanks Dan, it was LG that started the thread and hurt egos I hope are not frequent as most of us know this is as much art as science and are always looking to learn both scientific substance and artistic vision so we see the charts and signals right. Sometimes you have to know when to take off the rose tinted glasses and then there are times when you need to start sniffing the glue. <ggg>