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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boplicity who wrote (5560)	2/19/1999 2:52:00 AM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29970

You may think this is glib or insouciant, but I don't make predictions. A prediction must use human language and human language can be interpreted in contradictory ways. Check Marc Antony's speech in Julius Caesar. There is also negative influential effects. You can inadvertently cause people to do what they shouldn't do. Also, no prediction can be right, because in some aspect it is wrong. There is the folly of it too. Look at Bob Prechter from '87 to now. He has painted himself into a corner belief which may be correct in the final analysis, but he has missed the greatest bull market of all time as the price he must pay for possibly being right. It reminds me of a cartoon I saw where a soldier is standing holding his weapon in the middle of a devastated lifeless earth saying, "I think I won". Talk about Pyrrhic victories. What I have said is based on hard measures of what people are doing as represented by the evidence of every trade analysis. It has been the most bearish I've ever measured and the measuring started in 1978. The action represents precautionary moves by the public and institutions because everyone knows the market is historically precarious. One little news event and the thing wouldn't hold 7500. Meanwhile circumstances in Japan are causing our short rates to rise and this is outside the reasonable control of the FED. They can manipulate fed funds and enjoin confusion as to where equilibrium lies in the interbank market, but when it comes to the lending of money to government from the private sector, any nonsense smelling like the gasoline on the fire '70s, would be met by withdrawal of funds and higher rates. They can only toss a billion in coupons to keep something bailed, what, they don't know. The situation in Japan is now entering the dire straights. We are about to get another flight out of yen. As I right this, BOJ is checking yen/dollar. Japan can't afford another flight like last September, so they will pump in desperation. Monetization of short JGBs causes money supply to rapidly grow, but also carries higher short rates with it and that means disintermediation into our short T market. Again the only FED option is to pick up the short T-paper, and again that means wandering into those gasoline actions of the past. To say the least this means a replay of last summer but we are more precarious. The short rate backup has put the Acamporas on the alert and my money numbers are underwriting the fact that people are acting. Then you can take a look at stock charts. Yuk! I have made no predictions, but long experience has taught me that this isn't any time to be sticking your head out to grab a few bucks because baby needs a new pair of shoes.