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To: PaulM who wrote (28552)	2/19/1999 12:47:00 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 116893

Effectively, the government is saying that it will measure inflation by including or excluding goods, depending on which is going up. Paul, About as fair as including tobacco as an inflation indicator. The states sue the tobacco industry, forcing an artificial increase in prices to cover the cost of the settlement, and the CPI was impacted to the inflationary side and had to be adjusted. Oh well... it's all a voodoo science. My mine concern is to watch raw materials and energy, the two major components of the PPI. Regards, Ron

To: PaulM who wrote (28552)	2/19/1999 5:47:00 AM
From: Alex	Respond to of 116893

2/18/99 - G7 to examine proposals on debt relief - report <Picture> LONDON, Feb 19 (AFP) - The world"s top industrialized nations will consider three proposals to step up Third World debt relief at a Group of Seven finance ministers" meeting this weekend, a British newspaper reported on Friday. The United States, Germany and Britain will each table proposals in Bonn to speed up assistance offered by the West and to make it easier for poor countries to qualify, The Guardian said, citing G7 sources. Saturday"s meeting between Japan, Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and the United States, will be a vital stepping-stone in securing agreement on debt relief measures when the G7 meets in Cologne in June, it added. The left-leaning daily said that aid agencies believed that a high-profile campaign by stars from the worlds of pop and sport to cancel Third World debt was forcing rich nations to take the issue more seriously. Led by Bono, singer of Irish rockers U2, and boxing legend Muhammad Ali, Jubilee 2000 aims to cancel the estimated 371-billion-dollar debt of the world"s 52 poorest countries by the millennium. A US-backed proposal will be for the G7 to support sales of the International Monetary Fund"s 100-billion-dollar stockpile of gold to provide extra money for the World Bank"s Heavily Endebted Poor Country Initiative (HIPC), said The Guardian. Germany"s finance minister Oskar Lafontaine, meanwhile, will be pressing for the qualification period for HIPC to be cut to three years -- from six -- so that countries can receive help more rapidly. Britain, for its part, will strongly back the German proposal, but will push the G7 to go even further and ease the tough conditions necessary for countries to qualify for HIPC debt relief, the newspaper said.

To: PaulM who wrote (28552)	2/19/1999 6:29:00 AM
From: long-gone	Respond to of 116893

<<Richard, that's one way of controlling inflation, change the definition. Nowadays if you realize that the only way to measure inflation--the change in purchasing power of money--is to measure the dollar against a FIXED basket of goods and services, you're apparently ahead of tons of nobel prize winning economists. Effectively, the government is saying that it will measure inflation by including or excluding goods, depending on which is going up. >> "Let them eat cake."????????????? They have been playing this game to a greater or lesser extent for quite some time!

To: PaulM who wrote (28552)	2/19/1999 10:55:00 AM
From: long-gone	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116893

That the bears and the bulls oft times fight or brawl is no news. The true "news" of this market has been Pigs never go to slaughter as pork prices are low and stock prices continue higher and the bears and bulls only sashay to a modern tune with first one leading and then the other. Part of what has made for this peaceful waltz has been an overall agreement between the head of the Federal Reserve and the President(via his representative R Rubin in the treasury). The reasons for this polite display are of far less interest to us than rebuff that will happen after the dance when it comes time to decide with whom to leave. It is possible this argument may never happen, rather the whole party may well digress into a drunken "slam dance" on a tight rope. One thing is sure, the bull of this market has been allowed to run wild to long and has lost its vegetarian instinct for the carnivorous nature of his new friend the bear. I, though, am not remorseful as both the bear and the bull will soon devour the fattened pig BB-Q. The reason for this tight rope instead of the usual dance floor? The Federal Reserve can not act due to world economic problems. The PPI has made a bounce though a carry through to the CPI is can not be extracted. Now as the prices involved in day to day living go up, will our ever gullible population still believe the new age mantra "there is no inflation"? These indicators are so worthless the head of our Federal Reserve never depends on the PPI or CPI for his sole determination of inflation or deflation. It will become clear to all the federal government and Wall Street have been lying to the public and the Federal Reserve. So one must ask "What can be believed as an indicator of inflationary pressure"? The GATA law suit(or threat there of?) will at best restore gold price so it may again be used as an indicator and at worst will make the price of silver the "inflation indicator" of choice for economists. What will now make these disagreements ugly; will be the growing rifts between Alan Greenspan, the administration, Congress, and Wall Street. These disagreements will include: investment of Social Security monies in the stock market, increasing regulation from the federal government (EPA & OSHA today), IMF funding, Greenspan wanting the job again, the Dem./Repub. fight for Congress, impeachment backlashes, & Y2k. Be assured, all Federal Reserve bail-outs have ended. These will be interesting times - though not fun times (for some at least)! The many attempts & failures to neatly blow away the DIJA highs with the problems in the NASDAQ are indicators for all to watch. There may be yet another "Higher high" but I'm not betting on it. Many have been convinced that day is now night; but when the light go off and darkness descends, what will happen, how many will still believe times are great and there is no inflation? Are you dancing with whom which you wish to go home? I'll bet the precious metals investors will at least be able to afford a cab ride home. As for this theory of substitution in CPI indexing, at this rate will we just take two ASA vs a heart transplant?