Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Carl R. who wrote (43136)	2/19/1999 7:55:00 PM
From: Fabeyes	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

Before or after they go to 20? I do believe that DRAM prices will go up further, but not as much as in past recoveries, and for a much shorter time. But DRAM prices rising does not mean Micron will benefit without some yield improvements. Hyundai and Samsung now have current designs that are out yielding MU at probe by over 15% and at test by 20-25%. The Koreans are poised for the next increase in prices; remember Samsung has already announced a profit. They will have, in the US, a design that has as many die per wafer as MU's .21. With yield of over 90% they will control the market. You have to remember that you are as only good as HOW MUCH PRODUCT YOU SHIP OUT THE DOOR. From the last 10Q MU is admitting they are having yield problems; I would think that with buying TI's DRAM facilities they would show a bit growth of 30-40, not -10 or 10 (depending on what page of the report you read. Should MU start to have yield like they did in the past (75-85% at probe and 90+% test) they could make a lot of money, and the stock would follow. Right now the .21um is having real issues in all fab's, worst in Fab 3, from what I understand. Add that to the test problems and lifetime issues it will be hard for them to pass the Koreans. Another issue is RAMBUS. $500 million from INTC and no part in the near future. Both Hyundai and Samsung have working parts NOW. It would not surprise me to see Intel "give" MU some more cash; and own 15-20% of the company. Should that happen I would be curious as to how long MU would exist; maybe there would be two flags on Federal Way, MU & INTC. So after this tour -- I am sure that DRAM will make a short comeback. When the PII came out the reactionwas VERY good. How long? Right now I will have to wait until July for that "guess".