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Politics : Bill Clinton Scandal - SANITY CHECK -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Neocon who wrote (34462)	2/19/1999 11:34:00 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 67261

U.S.-Russian Kosovo Policy Dispute Threatens Bosnian Security stratfor.com February 19, 1999 SUMMARY The Kosovo crisis may have taken a turn for the worse when Yeltsin warned NATO that Russia "will not let Kosovo be touched." On February 17, President Boris Yeltsin kicked off an EU-Russia summit in Moscow with a blunt warning to the United States and NATO to stay out of Yugoslavia's troubled province of Kosovo. NATO has largely shrugged off these threats, and appears to be preparing to carry out its threats. However, the Kosovo dispute is not happening in a vacuum, and is but one facet of the reborn Russian-U.S. animosity. In preparing to pummel the Serbs into submission, against Russian wishes, NATO planners should first give a thought to the still delicate situation in neighboring Bosnia. While Russia is not likely to enter into an open military confrontation with NATO in Kosovo, it is highly plausible that it may use Russian peacekeeping troops in Bosnia as leverage against NATO strikes. ANALYSIS NATO's resolve to strike military targets in Serbia if a peace accord is not reached by Saturday between the Serbian government and ethnic-Albanian rebels threatens Russian interests in and sympathy towards Serbia. During a press conference welcoming German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder to the Kremlin, Yeltsin said he had made his views plain to U.S. President Bill Clinton in a series of telephone calls and diplomatic notes. "I gave Clinton my opinion in a letter, and by telephone, that (military action against Belgrade) won't pass. We will not let Kosovo be touched," Yeltsin said. The Whitehouse has denied reports that Yeltsin had contacted Clinton since their meeting at King Hussein's funeral last week. Whether or not Yeltsin communicated his concern to Clinton is immaterial, as it is now evident that NATO is leaning toward air strikes against Serbia. U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen announced that, in order to increase pressure on Belgrade to come to terms, the U.S. has dispatched an extra 50 warplanes to Europe to bolster the 260 warplanes NATO already has in the region. Other evidence pointing to the imminence of air strikes is inherent in the following facts. First, non-essential British embassy staff is being withdrawn from Yugoslavia; and, second, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Verification mission to Kosovo announced on February 18 that without an accord, or the prospect of one, the mission would leave Kosovo. NATO has largely shrugged off Yeltsin's comments, with most analysts having interpreted them as a power ploy in Russian internal politics. However, it is important to examine the implications of his threats for the region and Europe, particularly should Russia, responding to a NATO air strike, attempt to intervene directly on behalf on Serbia. This possibility may not be as far-fetched as it seems. Prior to last year's NATO ultimatum to Belgrade, Russia had been accused of arming the Serbs with anti-aircraft weapons. And, in an effort to ward off such an intervention by NATO, Serbia had sought to join formally the Russian federation. Given this history of Serbian-Russian rapprochement, what is Russia likely to do now to make good on its threats? Obviously, Russia could supply Serbia more openly with anti-aircraft equipment. While this would certainly have ramifications of its own, it is not as overt as Russia's other options, of which the most direct would be for the Russians to deploy aircraft and anti-aircraft units against NATO aircraft. Such a foolhardy gambit would risk an all-out war with NATO, and is therefore extremely unlikely. Perhaps the most telling option available to Russia would be for it to use its troops from nearby Bosnia as a lever against NATO intervention. One Russian airborne brigade is tasked with keeping the peace in the Serb-inhabited sector of Bosnia abutting the Serbian border. Curiously, this Russian unit comes under the operational control of U.S. forces, which is also comprised of one Multinational Scandinavian brigade and one U.S. Armored Cavalry regiment. In Bosnia, both the U.S. and Russian troops share the goal of implementing the Dayton Peace Accords. With this latest crisis in Kosovo coming to a head, that common goal may cease abruptly to exist. It is unlikely that Russian troops in Bosnia will openly fire on U.S. peacekeepers in order to deter air strikes. However, Russia may threaten the withdrawal of its troops from the Bosnian peacekeeping force or it may elect to move them into Serbia proper where military strikes are likely to occur. The former maneuver would leave the Serbs in Bosnia feeling vulnerable once again, with unforeseeable consequences for the maintenance of peace in Bosnia. The latter would enable the Russians to claim that NATO, should it launch air strikes into Serbia proper, deliberately attacked Russian peacekeepers, thereby affording the Russians a propaganda victory. These would certainly be bold, but not entirely implausible, moves by the Russians. Such moves might deter NATO strikes and score points for Yeltsin not only in his power struggle in Moscow, but also with the Serbian leadership. Therefore, while NATO is beginning the countdown to strikes over Kosovo, it must also keep an eye on Bosnia and the peacekeeping mission there. We can only hope that none of the scenarios actually occur.