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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (102990)	2/19/1999 10:39:00 PM
From: On the QT	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

Hi Michael, Sivy latest writings on the subject does flesh out his earlier thinking. I am a little wary about the way in which he states certain "facts". For instance, in one of his articles on the subject he states: "Companies that buy back their own stock beat the market over three years by more than 12%,on average." His source: David Ikenberry, Josef Lakonishok, and Theo Vermaelen, Journal of Financial Economics,vol.39, nos.2 and 3, 1995 He said in part: In fact, academic research supports the argument for stock buybacks. A 1994 study (QT: Origin of study not named) of more than 1,200 companies that announced stock buybacks during the '80s found that the boost such buybacks give to share prices is much bigger and longer lasting than many experts previously believed. After three years, the buyback companies beat portfolios of comparable stocks by more than 12% on average. And stocks that were greatly undervalued scored a lot higher. Companies whose shares were trading at low market prices relative to their book values gained as much as 45% in the four years following their buyback announcements." What we don't know is exactly what those stocks that were not deemed as value stocks (low market prices relative to their book values) actually returned, relative to the market. We don't know if we are using the same study, one conducted for 3 years the same or other, for 4 years. Based on what he recently said and what he said about 3 years ago, more emphasis seems to be on the substantial gains over a period of time that come with value stock buybacks. Yet even here, the return on those emphasized seems less as well. What I would have had difficulty inferring is that in the universe of overvalued stocks that those who were subject to stock buy backs faired any better or worse then those that did not. It is only after the latest article with more and better and changing information that new inferences could have been made. Therefore, any prior dialogue between any of our threadsters should be seen in light of the information available and in the manner in which the threadster communicated his or her opinion. A Threadster becomes a hypester when the available information is so obviously withheld, misunderstood and or convoluted as to seemly support an agenda that does not accommodate the spirit of honest and meaningful exchange. We need sort out those who seek to prevent meaningful exchange and we need the talent of our threadsters, not the hypesters, to work together in a spirit of accommodation (not necessarily in an adversarial or adoration mode). Hopefully, those of us who tend to reject the messenger because we are unable and or unwilling to accept or counterbalance in our own mind that which is brought to our attention will rethink our tendency to remain closed to other points of view. Contributions made by threadsters such as Chuzz, you and others are personally gratifying. I find the exchanges quite informative and thought enriching. If the motivation is to get to a better place in our investment and or trading decisions then accommodation for dialogue should be welcomed. You have demonstrated a willingness to explore and to entertain opinions not necessarily shared by you. Thanks for sharing your thoughts and I certainly welcome visits by you and those who contribute to our education as investors. OT and out of context: MDB: It is like horse racing. Every time I hit a big trifecta, I wish I had bet more money on it. But when my horse refuses to come out of the gate, I hate the money I wasted on the buy. QT: True. Can't think of anything more unrewarding then that in horse racing, perhaps because in this case, you didn't even get a chance to test your judgment. In addition, it does put an unexpected strain on the BR! In most cases, we do learn to take our losses in stride. The key to any game is not only skill in picking the winner (collecting the bet)it is money management and self discipline. Spent a long period of time trying to take that game down. Only one that I know of who seems to do it consistently is a guy named Dalman. How well are you doing? Great and exciting game. Loved it, but was unable to overcome the takeout on a consistent basis. Often wonder if the takeout were similar to what we have in the market, whether or not I'd even bother with stocks? No regrets. The market for me, while not as exciting, is infinitely more beatable. Can you imagine what horse racing would be like with out pari-mutuel wagering? I am not even referring back to the days of the hand books. Think of it. If after we got down, the rest of the wagering public who see what we do, but not as quickly, follow suit, takeout notwithstanding, we probably win big time! For those of us who are not aware of the comparison: If the stock gets positive play, the price goes up. Therefore, those of us who invested earlier would have bought in lower and will consequentially earn more as the price continues to appreciate. In horse racing, regardless of when you discovered your "winner-to-be" the price paid off is the price indicated just prior to the running of the race. The more positive play (there is no other kind) on the horse in relation to the other horses, the less amount of the payoff price. It is structurally impossible to conduct betting on racing in the same fashion as in the stock market. But the process of selecting is somewhat similar. You seem to know sooner than most when to get on and get off. Wonder how much learned in one game influenced the other? Enjoy your posts and appreciate your input. Regards, QT