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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Ohlendorf who wrote (28464)	2/19/1999 3:12:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

If anyone is holding a gun to your head making you buy AMAT, please inform your local police force. I for one, hope the scoundrels get the maximum punishment.

To: Michael Ohlendorf who wrote (28464)	2/19/1999 6:52:00 PM
From: Lionel Freiberg	Respond to of 70976

Me thinks Mr. Ohlendorf is short in here. And he is a bit more than nervous.

To: Michael Ohlendorf who wrote (28464)	2/21/1999 3:31:00 AM
From: klaus pluszynski	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Michael, just a few facts that you should take into consideration re. AMAT: Take a look at the SEMI bookings numbers: Today they're almost exactly at the level of January '97 - one billion USD. And we're on the upswing from the previous lows, just as in jan 97. AMAT traded in the $25 range at that time and rose to $50 until Oct 97. But at the same time, the S&P traded at an average P/E of 15, compared with 25 today. This accounts for part of AMAT's higher valuation today. Another reason for the higher valuation can be seen in the $/Yen exchange rate situation: In early '97 the Yen was trending lower vs. the USD, which is bad for US exporters like AMAT. For the last half year, the yen has however been appreciating very strongly, giving the US exporters an edge over their japanese competitors. That's again a reason for higher multiples on AMAT. Sure, there are risks: I see better bargains in the Semi Eq industry than AMAT, the long bond might break above 5.4% and the yen has weakened again over the last weeks. But there's still no reason for emotional exuberance to the downside. Klaus