To: DAVID C. DeANGELIS who wrote (364 ) 2/21/1999 9:03:00 PM From: StockHawk Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 954
David, I haven't seen mention of this one one the thread yet - TD. February 9, 1999 The Broker Within Toronto Dominion By Paul R. La Monica YOU MAY HATE the customer service at online broker Waterhouse Securities. But that's no reason to hate the stock of its parent, Toronto Dominion (TD). This Canadian bank is contemplating a public offering of a 20% stake in its discount brokerage unit, which includes Waterhouse and Jack White. If Toronto Dominion pulls it off, the parent company's stock could climb over 20%, says Hugh Brown, a banking analyst with Nesbitt Burns. Sure, online brokers have become investors' whipping boys after highly publicized service outages at E*Trade (EGRP) and Ameritrade (AMTD) this past week. But the stocks still sell at sky-high multiples compared with traditional banks and brokers. Even after falling 10 points early Tuesday, Ameritrade was selling at 64 times year 2000 earnings. Those high multiples have got Toronto Dominion management thinking. Why not sell a piece of Waterhouse? It could garner a P/E near 50 times expected earnings, much higher than the parent company's forward P/E of 18. The maneuver would raise cash and hopefully increase the market cap of the parent, once investors get a handle on what the discount-brokerage operations are worth. In the bank's Jan. 26 press release, CEO A. Charles Baillie said the company would probably spin off no more than 20% of Waterhouse and would use the proceeds from a public offering to make acquisitions. Brown of Nesbitt Burns says Toronto Dominion is about two weeks away from making a final decision on an IPO. Investors have bid up Toronto Dominion in anticipation of an IPO. But Brown thinks the stock is still undervalued. Here's why. Brown figures the discount brokerage operation will earn about 34 cents per share this year. Give that operation a multiple of 50, and you get a value of $17 per share. He believes the bank will earn $2.35 per share this year. At a multiple of 15, those operations are worth $35.25 per share. Put those two together, and you get a value of $52.25, which is a 26% premium over Toronto Dominion's current share price. A P/E of 50 may sound outrageous. But consider Waterhouse's astronomical growth. In the fourth quarter of last year, the firm's trading activity was up 58.5% over the previous quarter, according to a report by CS First Boston e-commerce analyst Bill Burnham. That gives Waterhouse a 12.4% share of the online trading market, vaulting it ahead of E*Trade, which has an 11.8% share. Charles Schwab (SCH) still has a sizable lead, though its market share fell from 30.3% to 27.4% in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, consider that Schwab sells at more than 62 times 1999 earnings, and E*Trade parent E*Trade Group is expected to lose 28 cents a share this year, yet it still trades at a recent 41 5/8. What type of acquisitions is Toronto Dominion likely to make? With high P/E Waterhouse stock, it might go after other online trading firms. Burnham says the three large enough to make sense for Waterhouse are E*Trade, privately held Datek and Ameritrade. E*Trade would be unlikely but not impossible. StockHawk