To: T-Lo Greens who wrote (41201 ) 2/19/1999 6:36:00 PM From: brian z Respond to of 164684
By Katherine Hobson ABCNEWS.com from TheStreet.com N E W Y O R K, Feb. 19 — “I'm forever blowing bubbles,” is still the Internet sector's theme song, but for how long? Even after falling from their highs, retail and institutional investors are still clamoring for Net stocks, even though many analysts say those shares are highly overvalued. TheStreet.com Internet Sector Index has risen more than 36 percent since its inception in late November, compared to the S&P's increase of just under 5 percent. This year alone, it's risen 16 percent, compared to a 1 percent increase in the S&P index. Internet Jitters That kind of growth, without corresponding increases in profit or sales, is making skeptics of even those who believe the Internet has transformed the economy like nothing else before it. (Learn more about this sector today during TheStreet.com's Net Stocks Summit audio roundtable.) “There are way too many inexplicable jumps when obscure companies make Internet announcements,” says Adam Schoenfeld, vice president and senior analyst at Jupiter Communications in New York. Even the blue chips of the Internet sector, like Amazon.com and Yahoo!, look expensive. “Even though I think they're among the best companies in the entire economy,” Schoenfeld say, “I have trouble understanding their valuation on Wall Street.” The Internet boom was only fueled by reports of stronger-than-expected online shopping during the holidays. According to Jupiter, 44 percent of U.S. households already using the Internet made purchases online during November and December, spending an estimated $3.14 billion. Zona Research estimates that online holiday spending by Internet users rose from an average of $216 in 1997 to $629 in 1998. Topping Gains With the fourth quarter so strong, some companies may find it hard to maintain that kind of growth in early 1999, says Rob Martin, analyst with Friedman Billings Ramsey in Arlington, Va. First-quarter results, he says, will “determine whether they can keep up the pace — whether it was their internal combustion producing results opposed to general market combustion.” These days, it's not enough for Internet companies to simply meet analysts' earnings expectations — now they've got to top them, says Martin. Earthlink, for example, closed lower Wednesday even after beating estimates. Jupiter's Schoenfeld thinks one bad quarter from an Internet leader like Amazon or eBay could deflate the bubble a bit. Though he's not predicting that will happen anytime soon, he says something has got to give. “There's got to be a return to rationality.” More to Choose From While many say valuations are still way out of whack with profits and sales, criteria for judging the prospects of Internet companies are getting more sophisticated, and opportunities more varied. No longer is it a matter of picking one favorite in each of the broad categories like content and commerce, says Martin. “There's an opportunity for leaders to emerge in each of those niche areas,” he says. For example, it used to be that if you believed e-commerce had a future, you'd buy Amazon.com. Now that the sector has fragmented, investors have a choice, including auction companies like eBay, online brokers like E*Trade, or toy companies like eToy ' which filed Wednesday to go public. At the current pace, the number of new Internet companies will have doubled by the end of the year, says Martin. “As an investor, you try to isolate which companies are taking their business model to the next step,” says Martin. Companies compete on price, customer service as well as with the product or service offered. “You look at who's operating on all cylinders,” he says. “People are gravitating towards the leaders in those categories.”