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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (6713)	2/19/1999 5:31:00 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Hello everyone, I am usually over at the Art of Investing thread when Lee mentioned what a fine thread this is. I just read a very scary article. It sites various statistics on median valuations of P/E, P/S, P/B, P/CF, and market cap to GDP ratios since 1926 and 1957. It seems that a return to the norm would at the very least require a 45% drop from the current levels. But this was not the scary part. The scary part was that these statistics did not bother me at all. I wonder how many fund managers are as complacent as I seem to have become. The other scary part of the article was the mention of Chairman Greenspan on the cover of Time magazine as the hero who saved the world. I think most of us know about the curse of Time. They also superimposed the chart of Gold Blow-off of 1979~80 on the chart of Interactive Week Internet Index 1998~99. The similarities are quite remarkable, though Gold did move a bit more to the extreme. nice to know that human nature has not changed that much. Lastly, my personal indicators are all pointing south and indicate that at best we'll see a repeat of 1994. Only I don't think we will recover from it as nicely. Needless to say that I am now net short the market. Just sharing some thoughts--have good weekend, Sun Tzu