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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Judy who wrote (21146)	2/22/1999 4:09:00 PM
From: Andrew Vance	Respond to of 25960

The street does respond to the overall B:B but then we get earnings disappointments at the end of the quarter with a subsequent reversal in prices. The disappointments are ususally in whisper numbers or push outs. As technicians we want to understand the numbers behind the ratios and what they really tell us. The B:B is a rolling 3 month average but when you look at the improving B:B over the past 6 months, you do not see a decent increase in any of the underlying numbers. these underlying numbers are the revenues and earnings we are looking for coming out of these equipment suppliers. Even though these ratios reflect a 3 motnh rolling average, one would think you would eventually see an improvement in the underlying numbers take place a little bit at a time. Once I see a decent set of improving numbers, I might be tempted to say the sector is about to run. This would be substabtiated with the next month's B:B numbers. Finally, you would get the third month's numbers factored in for the sector up turn. In other words, the underlying numbers do look at a rolling 3 months but if business gets better and stronger, you should see the numbers improve over the following 3 months. I say jump aboard after the first month shows itself, add more after it is validated for the second month, and sit back for the ride when month 3 validates your insights. If we look at the B:B and numbers for the past months we could almost make a case for the last run up. we could also make a decent case for the last few weeks of stagnation and some of the less than stellar quarterly commentaries by these companies. My way of looking at these things may differe from most since I still look at fundamentals, technicals, value and valuations from a mnore conservative and realistic viewpoint. The tech sector is very fickle due to market and herd perception. For some unknown reason the herd stampedes to and from this sector much more rapidily than from other sectors. This is just my opinion, for what it is worth. I have lived through a few industry downturns and have seen both the market and the individual companies call a recovery well in advance of its reality. It's like looking for a ray of hope to go forth on. I have seen premature exuberance before and am convinced this recent and very protracted downturn is being met with a great deal more conservatism by the companies. they are not loosening the belt as fast this time around and the capital dollars are not flying around as fast as they used to be. This is going to be a slow recovery but I still stand behind my mid year stance. The belts have been tightened dramatically and possibly too tight if a fast recovery occurs. If the sector turns too fast, you run into people resource issues of the highest and broadest spectrum. Unfortunately, most companies view people as their hihest valued assets but treat the operations associates and mid level technical personnel as their most expendable commodity instead of management or even ungodly managment bonuese and compensation. So when an upturn occurs, both vendor and end user find gapping holes in their ability to respond to a recovery as their people become the gating factors. they are already working at 100-110% of capabilities ans can't give the extra output required. You then go through ungodly recruiting and training processes to ramp back up. Especially in CA, where unemployment is real low. Anyway, just a slight off topic diatribe<GGG>. Andrew