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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (996)	2/19/1999 10:06:00 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

bobby, I don't like hearing you say that!!! I bailed on some CMGI calls that I had made serious cash on in January when you sounded your warning. Saved some serious coinage (thanks BTW). I just bought puts on AMZN today after it failed to make it back to its resistance point. Like Ms. X, I use P&F and am still quite bearish. I hope you are wrong this time. What was the reason that you gave for the tulip blowoff? JXM

To: bobby beara who wrote (996)	2/20/1999 10:20:00 AM
From: Ms. X	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3543

Bobby, You may very well be right but there are things to take into consideration here before jumping on a stock long in this market. With all the indicators bearish all stocks no matter how fundamentally strong etc, are swimming up stream. The short term indicators are oversold but it doesn't mean they are at the end of their selloff. Oversold doesn't mean end, it is just a placemark. Amazon is in a sector that is at 50% and moving down. That sector can easily move into the 30% range. Amazon has underperformed the market. Amazon is only at the medium of its trading band right now with the bottom of the trading band around (gulp)50. My point really is, we don't know it is oversold until there is some consolidating and some buy signals. AMZN has done neither. They just made a lower top after a huge sell signal or two. If they can rally to 112 and break a double top, this will be at least the beginning of a better picture. What worries me is on the 5 box chart AMZN bounced off the bullish support line (which is good) but that sets up a double bottom at 80 below the bearish which would be as nasty as they come. In other other words...I'm not convinced. I need to see it on paper. Jan I am