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To: Mike from La. who wrote (37869)	2/19/1999 11:09:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

I'll second George's call that new lows in OSX are likely. A couple of weeks ago, I laid out 2 Scenarios wave wise, 1 for new lows and the other for the low having been put in on Dec 22/98 via a 'fifth wave failure'. I said at the time that either could be in the cards and that I didn't have strong conviction which one I favoured. I have also said many times in the recent past that the BEST thing that could happen now would be for the OSX to finally go to a clear new low since that would be the LAST wave down and the picture would be complete.-- With today's failure to extend yesterday's rise and the low close, the odds of a new 5 wave drop to new lows has now risen considerably in my opinion. Under this scenario, the seesaw a-b-c-d-e triangle we have been in for several months finally ended with the Feb 3 rally to 54.03 (approx). From there, we may well have finally started Wave 5 down to new lows-the final wave. Wave 5 must proceed in a 5 subwave sequence if this is to be the case. If the OSX continues to dip Monday am, it will have completed the 3rd of such waves, with a 4-5 to come. Any print below 45.53 in a 5 wave sequence from the Feb 3 peak will suffice, although my trading software suggests that it could get down to the 40-42 area before the end. ---The key thing to keep in mind though is that we should all want a new low to finally put in its appearance as that is the clearest way for the entire drop from the top to finally come to a close. All this meandering back and forth merely clouds the picture and the sooner we print a new low the better in my opinion. And i say that as one who is long 4 osx issues at present.

To: Mike from La. who wrote (37869)	2/20/1999 11:58:00 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 95453

Mike; I am bearish on the OSX short-term, but am extremely bullish looking beyond . A final brutal shakeout is just what is needed to put this bear to pasture once and for all. I think Gary Burton also opined that if this latest rally failed we would soon see new lows. As Papaya has pointed out, the OSX would be at news lows now if not for SLB and HAL.The prospect of a big frop in the overall market adds to the short-term risk of the OSX.