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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Sphar who wrote (8045)	2/20/1999 4:54:00 PM
From: MikeM54321	Respond to of 9980

Re: AMG Investor Flows Here's the latest from AMG: "Equity Fund inflows - totaling $510 Million for the week ended 2/17/99 are focused heavily in Large Cap Equity Index Funds; Money Market Funds report inflows of $10.1 Billion; Taxable Bond Fund inflows total $76 Million." ------------------- Thread, I know that some are concerned about the markets getting exhausted. Bill Fleckenstein has mentioned this quite a few times in his nightly column. Fleckenstein believes, once everyone is 100% into the equities markets, there won't be much more money available to keep the bubble inflated. But this comment seems (IMHO) to ignore a couple of important factors. First, and I believe the financial press does report this, is the belief that some previous equity mutual fund investors are now doing their own investing directly. If they do so, then AMG cannot accurately track this flow of money into stocks. So we may be seeing the money flows into mutual funds dropping over the last year, but it's not necessarily directly attributable to investors running out of money, as some propose. Secondly, and this is not widely reported, it appears that when the equity fund inflow drops dramatically (as it did above), the money seems to go into money market funds. Obviously this is because for that particular week, new money is hesistant to invest into equity funds for that particular week. I do not have any accurate figures to support this theory, but just a cursory look at the numbers each week, I get the feeling this is what is happening. This appears to be supported by the fact that when calm does return to the markets, they seem to rise with an initial vengance. Again, just my observations and not based on any facts. If anyone has any type of data/opinions supporting or conflicting with my very casual observations, it would be nice to hear them. MikeM(From Florida)