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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sea_biscuit who wrote (41365)	2/20/1999 2:39:00 AM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

>>Don't be surprised if this one turns out to be a little too light when it steps up on the weighing machine. Ask Barnes & Noble or CDNow how much Amazon weighs.

To: sea_biscuit who wrote (41365)	2/20/1999 3:11:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Respond to of 164684

12 Fingerhut's shares), we tend to agree with Forrester and believe that the price may seem steep now, but if the short history of the Internet has provided us with any lessons, we know such expertise and partnerships will only cost more in time. We Continue to look for even more activity (partnerships, mergers, acquisitions, investments) in the retailing sector as 1999 unfolds. If you thought traditional media companies have been aggressive merger players with Internet portals in 1998, you haven't seen anything yet. 1999 is the year that traditional retailing companies “get the Net”. VC Investment Remains Strong The latest survey from PricewaterhouseCoopers about the level of venture capital investment provided us with some nice comfort that there is a bright outlook for innovation and competition in the Internet space for the next handful of years. Total venture capital investments in the U.S. reached an all-time record of $14.3 billion in 1998 (versus 1997's $11.5 billion). Internet company-focused venture investment showed the largest growth, rising 66% y/y, the largest single increase in any category, to $3.5 billion. Added to this news comes Softbank's recent sale of a portion (10%) of their YHOO holdings was to raise cash for further investments and CMGI's announcement that it will be actively engaging in the funding (to the tune of $100 million) and operation of an un-named Web-based broadcasting initiative. Innovation (and confidence) is apparently alive and well. Valuation Watch Knowledge is proud that he has learn'd so much; Wisdom is humble that he knows no more” - William Cowper Yup, the last few weeks have re-proved our thesis that these Internet stocks represent the most difficult investing sector in the stock market. Patience and discipline help, but an iron stomach help more. And as we say with frequency, these Internet stocks will hurt to own going forward, probably worse than they hurt to own right now. That said, as anyone who has held on to AOL over the last three years can attest, pain and suffering can also beget great capital gains. As we hope we made clear in The Week above, we still think the outlook for these stocks is strong. We've already been through a few sessions of fear and doubt, most notably the late August and late September sell-offs that took away anywhere from 30-50% of these companies' value. And we're in one again now, when no announcement is good enough and no rally sustainable (though Friday's provided a glimmer of hope). As we've written about before, these stocks still are controlled by a two-factor valuation outlook: macro-market factors (liquidity levels and risk appetites) and Internet-specific factors (earnings and industry catalysts). As industry-specific fundamental analysts, we'd be intellectually dishonest to suggest that we know precisely how Alan Greenspan's comments, employment growth, and the CPI impact Internet valuations (though they most certainly do indirectly). We leave that to the strategists and market technicians (and, of course, yourselves) to figure out. For Internet-specific factors like earnings, we couldn't be more optimistic, since these companies have tended to outperform operating expectations consistently and there is no reason to think they won't going forward (at least the leaders). Though fears of seasonality have infected the outlook in this sector, it should help to remember that