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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (6743)	2/20/1999 3:56:00 AM
From: nicewatch	Respond to of 99985

Hi Lee, I just took a look at the MDA chart page... there's a lot of *forking* going on over there! <GGG> The one that stuck out the most -to me- was LG's -i think- dow chart. The dow is hitting its head against that upper tine; a chart I hadn't seen in a week or so. Still a lot of mixed signals, imo. I think your idea of a fake-out seems reasonable... I only wish I were smart enough to figure out the direction. <G> Regardless of the direction or initial fake-out, I think the stage is being set for a big move... BWDIK. Talk to you later, have a great weekend. Regards, Frank

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (6743)	2/20/1999 8:24:00 AM
From: stockycd	Respond to of 99985

Lee, Looking at these charts, the DOW has almost "contained" itself in the pitchfork. Before we could have a moderate sized sell-off in the Dow, we need to make a lower low, bounce off it and zig/zag some more for a while. I think it would have to fall through the 9063 area. I see the NASDAQ and SOX more able to go lower, quicker, because of their fast rise. I am personally looking for more side ways zig/zag for the DOW and the Transports until (or if) the NASDAQ and the SOX sell off. If we start seeing recovery in the NASDAQ and SOX, that will pull the DOW. Chris

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (6743)	2/20/1999 8:30:00 AM
From: donald sew	Respond to of 99985

Lee, Commonly on a descending triangle the lower vector is horizontal. There are 2 points which are fairly close around 618-620, and we could draw the horizontal there, unfortunately such line was pierced to the downside by to 611. Is that enough to negate the formation. Since it came right back up, it may just be considered an overshoot. Lee, as for the formations about to dissolve, my short-term technicals wont be of much help since they are basicly all in the mid-range. If they were overbought I would say the formations would be dissolved to the downside, and vice-versa. Seeya

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (6743)	2/20/1999 10:42:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

INDEX UPDATE ========================================= From a chart reading perspective, there are alot of formations which should get resolved soon(PITCHFORKS, TRENDLINES, WEDGES,ETC). Some of these patterns are larger patterns so I am now attempting to see if I can spot some smaller patterns within the larger patterns for some clue of direction. The NAZ is in a clear downtrend from the early FEB peak, and I was unable to spot a smaller pattern; however in the DOW and SPX there are smaller chart patterns that formed within the last 7 days, which may give us a clue: DOW - ASENDING TRIANGLE(bullish) --------------------------------------- UPPER TRENDLINE - connect HIGHs of 2/12(9390) & 2/19(9394) LOWER TRENDLINE - connect LOWs of 2/10(9099) & 2/17(9179) SPX - PENNANT or TRIANGLE(bearish) ------------------------------------------------- UPPER TRENDLINE - connect HIGHs of 2/11(1254) & 2/19(1248) LOWER TRENDLINE - connect LOWs of 2/10(1212) & 2/18(1220) Both of these patterns appears that they should get dissolved by the end of next week/early following week(FEB 25/26-MAR 1/2), so until then these indexes should trade within the parameters of these patterns which implies relative flatness for most of next week. The timing of when these patterns should dissolve is also right at the the same time of the END-of-MONTH/WINDOW-DRESSING RALLY. Subjectively, if the overall market does not sell off next MON/TUE/WED, but remains flat, I am suspecting that we could see a rally to the upside at the end of the month. Now if the NAZ stays within its downward trend then the rally in the DOW/SPX should be limited. This possible rally may pierce the the various resistance around 9400(UPPER TINE OF DESCENDING PITCHFORK/DESCENDING WEDGE). Now the question is if the important resistance around 9400 is broken to the upside will the market set new highs? It would require alot more confirmation, and at this time it appears unlikely unless the market internals improve immediately and dramatically, and the NAZ breaks its downtrend to the upside. So, if there is a rally that takes out 9400 on the DOW, then the key to watch is if the NAZ breaks its current downtrend to the upside. If this rally occurs it should top out during the 1st week of MAR. I believe that the BRADLEY may have a downward signal in early MAR. Does anyone have the BRADLEY SLIDERGRAPH(whatever it is called) website. I also do follow FIB numbers and MAR 1 is 34 trading days from the DOW's all-time peak on JAN 8. The way I use FIB dates is that it may be a significant turning point, whether up or down, so I dont know if MAR 1 is a top or bottom. If we get that rally, then MAR 1 may be the TOP of that cycle. I normally use a fudge factor of + or - 2/3 days. Also the 55th FIB day would be MAR 30. Fib numbers are far from exact and I only use it as a guideline where I combine it with my short-term technicals. seeya

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (6743)	2/20/1999 11:10:00 AM
From: Daflye	Respond to of 99985

Yo L!!! I was reviewing yesterdays charts, OEX intraday, and I just wanted to share a nice little divergence that I missed. When the OEX was pushing 624 for the second time I passed on OEYNF because I was thinking about how last expiry it ramped, and ramped, right up to the close. Even though I felt the OEX would close around 617-619. I passed on the trade. Message 789314. At the time the ask was 6 3/4. Had I been looking at the TICK, and TRIN with the OEX I would have noticed a lower TICK and slightly higher TRIN from the earlier intraday high (624ish). That would have told me that upside was fading and a reversal was coming. Would have been a great little trade from say 7 to 11 on OEYNF. Of course this is all hindsight, and at the time I had resolved not to trade yesterday. I use Waterhouse also, and lately with the lower volume days the fills have been pretty good. I've resorted to entering a limit price 1/8 or 1/4 above the current ask for buys and about that on the bid for sells(options). I just have my finger on the "confirm" button while I'm waiting for confirmation of a reversal for or against me to get in or out. This has gotten me in and out consistently. A few times I've paid or given up 1/4 point more than I should but it has allowed me to catch enough of the move when things move quickly to be worth it. Trying to chase a trade with Waterhouses interface is a losing battle. Just typing in my phone number seems to take long enough to bungle a trade. Bigger picture, there seems to be enough bearishness in the press to insure one more J6P inspired rally, everybody's a contrarian ya know. OEX and SPX could push old highs, but I think the NAZ will actually lag. Most High tech seems "dirty" right now. heh heh heh. Cheers, D