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To: Walker who wrote (2783)	2/20/1999 11:23:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 3033

Walker, Siebel does have a lot of momentum, however, their space is confined to the very large organizations. You're primarily correct, of course. However, Siebel is enterring the mid-tier market and their telesales team is already closing those deals over the phone. --Mike Buckley

To: Walker who wrote (2783)	2/20/1999 12:01:00 PM
From: Wizard	Respond to of 3033

>>their space is confined to the very large organizations. Good spot to be when the market is still unsaturated. >>This space is becoming crowded as SAP, Oracle, and others add or buy capability. This is the big risk for Siebel, for sure. However, Siebel is the only front-office company with a chance to be a very large company. ONXS can be a successful investment in the near-term but if Siebel gets beat up by SAP etc... then how is ONXS going to make it. Once upon a time, low-hanging fruit was all over the place but that is changing. BTW, the reason SAP is going to this market is because of the long-term opportunity. Siebel is a very tough company to compete against and has a clear advantage as early market-share leaders. If they can execute, SEBL stock will be a very successful investment. When I figure out when they will stop beating estimates, it will be time to short this stock but until then, it should be TRADED from the long-side, IMO. (I recently sold most of my stock in the low $40's and looking to buy it back sometime).

To: Walker who wrote (2783)	2/20/1999 6:55:00 PM
From: Lee L.	Respond to of 3033

Siebel does have a lot of momentum, however, their space is confined to the very large organizations. This is exactly where a company wants to be. The margins are obscene. This space is becoming crowded as SAP, Oracle, and others add or buy capability. In the meantime, VNTV, ONYX and others move their products up to compete with Siebel. Same as two years ago. All of these companies continue to prove that they can't execute in this space. SAP's attempts with K&V have been pathetic. Oracle's performance in applications has been worse than pathetic. VNTV doesn't know how to consistently sell to the high-end. They have some top-notch marquee customers, but they aren't winning the high-end business on a consistent basis. After having negotiated with VNTV myself, I now understand why. Siebel ... takes a long time to install, is expensive to purchase, and is harder to use then the competition. I think that you're misinformed, but even if you aren't -- so what; who cares. SAP defined and continues to dominate the ERP market. It will probably go down as the the most expensive, most difficult-to-implement package in in history. Regardless, I wish I had purchased SAP shares 5 years ago. As soon as they do not have the marketspace to themselves, their margins will start to erode. then we will see how much someone is willing to pay for their stock. I see no signs of that happening now. These same statements applied two years ago. You can invest in losers and winner-wanna-be's. Since I believe in the potential of this market, I'm sticking with the winners.