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To: accountclosed who wrote (20641)	2/20/1999 9:46:00 AM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 86076

AR, you trying to confuse the confused-G- looks like I post Thursday twice....while calling it Friday.. here is Friday's Peter Eliades' Stockmarket Cycles update for Friday, February 19, 1999. We told you yesterday that today plus or minus one day was scheduled to be a resolution of a 28 market day turning point pattern. Because today's print high intra-day on the Dow was the highest high in over two weeks, it fully qualifies as a turning point top. The biggest technical news continues to be the abysmal behavior of the daily advance-decline line and today that pattern continued. With the Dow up almost 100 points at its high today, the advance-decline line never showed more than 83 more advances than declines throughout the day. At the close the Dow was up over 40 point, but there were over 100 more declines than advances at the close. >From February 9 to February 19, the Dow was up over 200 points on a closing basis. Over the same period the daily advance-decline line is down almost 2,100 units. We did tell you that today was day 28 of a 28 market day turning point pattern. We did not tell you that it was also the 28th day after the Dow's all time high. As we have pointed out in examining crash behavior before, the distance from the all time highs in 1929 and 1987 to their secondary tops preceding the beginning of the crashes in those years, was also 28 market days on both occasions. We are also in a time window where Steve Puetz's astronomical data suggests the possibility of the beginning of a market crash. Please be aware that almost any 4-5% decline from here, perhaps even less than that, would probably see the S&P daily Coppock Curve move below the support ledge which has held for the past year and a half. We have shown that support ledge in some of the newsletters recently. A break below that ledge could well suggest crash like behavior will occur. Time should be running out for the potential crash scenario here. The 28 day turning point is plus or minus one day, so we have to allow for possible higher highs on Monday, but no further highs beyond Monday should be seen if indeed, crash like behavior is coming in this time period. Remember also that the Russell 2000 and the Wilshire Small Cap Index and the Value Line Arithmetic Cash Index has just recently fallen below declining 200 day moving averages and remained there today. That is negative technical behavior that could lead to an acceleration of the decline. Mutual fund switchers, Rydex switchers are in the Ursa fund. Fidelity Select switchers and others are in cash. All mutual fund switchers should call after 3:20 p.m. ET each market day and call each market evening. Stock Index futures traders are short the March S&P. Monday place your initial stops at 1254.20. If you are stopped out, you may reshort on a move below 1233.20 with a stop at 1243.40. March bonds have given preliminary downside projections to just below the 114 level, but those projections are still not confirmed as of today's close. The XAU still has a nominal 20 week projection down to 51.20 +- $4.00. That's it for now. Have a great weekend. We'll talk to you on Monday.