Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pied Piper who wrote (3678)	2/20/1999 9:40:00 AM
From: Rande Is	Respond to of 57584

Precisely. . .well said, Pied Piper.

To: Pied Piper who wrote (3678)	2/20/1999 2:39:00 PM
From: Frederick Langford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Rande, Maybe you better watch this guy, joined SI on Feb 3 and seems to think he has ALL the answers: Message 7690750 Fred

To: Pied Piper who wrote (3678)	2/20/1999 6:07:00 PM
From: J.S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

I agree Pied Piper. What bothers me is the Pied Pipers of Wall Street who keep advising the ingenue investors to buy and hold for the long term regardless of valuations, citing historical data. That is really bogus reasoning that can be applied to pyramids and Ponzi schemes. The past need not replicate the future. There is a well know critique of simplistic inductive inference known as Goodman's paradox of Induction (named after the American analytic/nominalist philosopher Nelson Goodman). Basically, it says that if statements are time and era dependent then they can't be generalized into the future.e.g. It has been the twentieth century for the past 100 years..however that is hardly any evidence for it being so in the next hundred years. Also you can camp out in the middle of a deserted street at 3 AM and experience no danger from cars for several hours. That is of no use in inferring what will occur in the next several hours. Just look at what happened to Japan's stock market let alone Thailand or Russia. You may be able to make the case that the US is not third world and doesn't carry that time of risk, but I can't see how we could put our markets and economy at a different level than the Japanese. I can't predict the future and the S&P may be at 2000 by the millenium for all I know. The only thing that I think needs to be understood and communicated is the risk involved in buying in a market with such high valuations. Take care, Joe