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To: thomas hayden who wrote (37885)	2/20/1999 11:23:00 AM
From: Mike from La.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

What you say is all part of the guessing game. Anyone who knew for sure would get rich. The speculation will go on, the suspense will build, etc. No one knows. Pays your money and takes your chances. Good luck. Mike from La.

To: thomas hayden who wrote (37885)	2/20/1999 11:55:00 AM
From: gregor	Respond to of 95453

Tom : you have some great ideas, on the one hand I agree with you in that as part of the Saudi ploy they would suggest they may be open to american dollars to open up more oil fields; especially after Russia has stated the same. But internally they are in a mess. I don't feel the current government would risk being overthrown. The more likely strategy would be a lot more rhetoric and a lot of maneuvering. I still see a spike in oil at some point this year to 18.25, possibly sept or oct. I know this is outrageous but I base this on the fact that the Saudi's have no need to paralize worldwide exploration and development when all they need to do is "crimp" the pipeline a little and rely on the marginal producers to shut down as they have always done.

To: thomas hayden who wrote (37885)	2/20/1999 1:37:00 PM
From: dazzled	Respond to of 95453

THIS scenario of Tom's is maybe 50-50 possibility? dz

To: thomas hayden who wrote (37885)	2/21/1999 12:06:00 AM
From: Pete Young	Respond to of 95453

Thomas, How large a producer is Russia? Large and getting larger, correct? Russia is fighting to get a share of the world market for oil to earn foreign exchange they need desperately. They're the "new" kid on the block. I think I read that the formation of OPEC was a result of Russia's (USSR at the time) re-entrance to the world's oil market. The Americans lowered oil prices and the low prices led the producers to form an international "Texas Railroad Commision". Is SA fighting the Russian's re-entrance to the oil market? SA has growing internal problems (unemployment, fundementalism, unclear leadership succession) that they need to attend to. Low oil prices have historically caused the Arabs serious political headaches. Why pick a fight with Russia (if that's what's going on) from such an unstable situation? Or, is it possible that no one strong group is controlling SA's oil policy...that there's internal conflict that is causing them to act counterproductively. And what about the growing political backlash from the oil producing regions in this country. That has, historically, been quite a strong force. Can it be again? Or has oil production in this country diminished so much that the industry's political champions are no match for the oil-consuming interests of the rest of the U.S.? In the past, it took only a few percentage points of excess or insufficient oil supply worldwide to send prices plunging or spiralling. Anyone know what the percentage of oversupply is now? How about how much less is Asia consuming compared to pre-crash? Pete