'Why, Gertrude that is practically redundant'- Dell, stock of the decade still.
Kenneth:
Here is humorous article of predictions courtesy of Fortune Magazine,Feb 15th edition.Enjoy.
My favorite prediction is this,and rightfully so for me at least.
"...Stock of the decade:
I said it last year and I'll say it again. The best-performing stock of the '90s (in the S&P 500) will be Dell. Stock is up 66,436% decade to date. Whoa! No. 2 is EMC, up 31,381%. I call that a lock. What? You say it's too late to buy Dell stock? That's what you said last year, and all it's done since then is triple!...."
====================
Wanna Know What's Up for 1999?
The crystal-ball thing, from Brazil (it'll pass) to Y2K (a complete yawn).
Andrew Serwer
Okay, I know we're a month into the new year already, but I still haven't done my predictions for 1999. Hey--I got so caught up day-tradin' Net stocks that I haven't had a moment to come up for air! But just for a second, I'll take a breather and do the crystal-ball thing.
Brazil: This too shall pass. Rather quickly. I can't understand why anyone is even the slightest bit surprised by economic turmoil in Brazil. (Why, Gertrude, that's practically redundant!) Every five years or so this country gets its act together a little, and some dismal scientist pronounces that Brazil's problems have been solved. Guess what. They haven't been. But that doesn't mean Brazil can take down the U.S. economy. Or even dent it much.
Internet stocks: Back to the main event. They will tank--if they haven't already--and then come back. And maybe tank again. I'll tell you, right now things are out of control with these puppies. I was riding home in a cab the other night from my hoop game with my buddy Dave and the cabdriver hears us talking Net stocks. "Oh," he says in a heavy Pakistani accent, "I own Mindspring and Lycos. So far I've made $138,000." Dave shakes his head and says, "And we're paying this guy ten bucks for the ride?" By the way, get ready for a whole new cast of Net-stock characters. Remember, at this time last year no one had ever heard of eBay or Broadcast.com. So start putting these names on your radar screen: Pacific Internet, Priceline.com, iVillage, and barnesandnoble.com. Some of 'em are sure to be heavy-metal thunder.
Stock of the decade:
I said it last year and I'll say it again. The best-performing stock of the '90s (in the S&P 500) will be Dell. Stock is up 66,436% decade to date. Whoa! No. 2 is EMC, up 31,381%. I call that a lock. What? You say it's too late to buy Dell stock? That's what you said last year, and all it's done since then is triple!
Y2K: A complete yawn. I promise, you won't encounter a single solitary disruption because of it. That's not to say that companies aren't busting some hump, but unless you work in IT, forget it. One play here: Companies will be so focused on Y2K that they will postpone database and ERP software projects. That could hurt stocks like SAP, Oracle, PeopleSoft, and Baan. Can you say "buying opportunity"?
Hot stocks: Leaving aside techs, which should be big winners again, I think bank stocks will sizzle in 1999. I know Brazil and Latin America look scary, but smoke this: Bank stocks went nowhere last year--they were completely beaten up by the international firestorm thing. Since then they've been cutting back on emerging markets and leveraged lending. And the environment stateside couldn't be better--low rates, steady growth. Check out regional banks--I own 'em--and Citigroup. Why not take a ride with Sandy Weill? He has the track record!
Wall Street buddy acts: Hey, John Meriwether and Jon Corzine are going to start a consulting firm together!!! True, these guys have jobs for now, but those are sort of, ahem, dead ends. Anyway, their new company could advise clients on risk and career management. Just kidding. In fact, I hear there is some major antipathy (and agony) between Meriwether and Corzine. Word is, they clashed pretty good during the Long-Term Capital bailout meetings. Which makes sense, since Meriwether was the top bond trader at Salomon while Corzine held the same post at Goldman. And there was never any love lost between those two firms!
Loose Change
Just a few more. Wall Street's take on the Clinton trial: four possible outcomes. Short trial, Clinton stays. Short trial, Clinton goes and Gore's in. Long trial, Clinton stays. Long trial, Clinton goes and Gore's in. And? Who cares? Outcomes too similar to warrant a prediction.... Sporting life: In NCAA hoop, Duke wins. NBA (if you care)--it'll be the Pacers (sorry, Mailman!).... Nasdaq will end the year around 2500, up about 14%. The Dow will end around 9778, up about 6.5%. We will, though, break through 10,000.
Issue date: February 15, 1999
Vol. 139, No. 3
fortune.com
|
