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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Teflon who wrote (201)	2/20/1999 3:49:00 PM
From: JRH	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Good discussion going on here. Thanks Teflon.... For the record, I believe AOL is a Gorilla I am curious as to how you think that an internet service provider can be a gorilla when 1.) there are no barriers to entry (except time itself) and 2.) there is nothing proprietary about their services. Or, do you think AOL has established itself as a gorilla because of the actual AOL content that it provides that can't be used by anyone but AOL users? DSL technology is not going to get us there. To believe that twisted pair copper lines will ever compete with the one massive bandwidth pipe (the cable line) already entrenched in the American culture is absurd But doesn't DSL technology basically give the same high-speed performance that cable does? From what I understood, cable performance decreases as more users jump online. Therefore it would appear to me that cable is not the technology that will lead us into the next millenium. But, of course, I could be wrong. Just trying to stir up discussion ;o) Justin

To: Teflon who wrote (201)	2/21/1999 9:26:00 PM
From: Mark[ox5]	Respond to of 54805

<<<DSL technology is not going to get us there. To believe that twisted pair copper lines will ever compete with the one massive bandwidth pipe (the cable line) already entrenched in the American culture is absurd. Teflon, 2 points 1) you say cable will win because its entrenched in American culture. Hmm..last I checked I think every house has a phone, while perhaps 80% have cable. So how is cable any more "entrenched" than copper lines? I am not arguing against or for cable.. but I just think the line of reasoning here is not correct. 2) If cable does indeed become the de facto standard, what is your viewpoint of the fact that if everyone comes at at 5:30-6:00 PM after a day of work to jump on the internet... .. in the future.. a few years out... when the internet is part of EVERYONE's lives... what about the fact that cable lines DO GET BOGGED down ... i.e. I have read in 4 or 5 different articles that if x amount of users use the same cable it DOES slow down... while with DSL that wouldnt be a problem. At this point, its a moot point... there are not enough cable subscribers... and not even enough internet subscribers to make this an issue. But if this happens in say 4 years, and people are paying for "X" amount of speed and instead get "X-40%" speed, I think the American consumer will raise hell. Once again, I am not arguing pro or con either issue... just playing the devil's advocate. You seem from your post like you already know cable will win without any chance of losing. I see it as, who has deeper pockets, the cable monopolies or the baby bells... I find it interesting that AT&T is supporting the cable side.. yet is a phone co. I don't know the answers myself, but I think it's farfetched (at this juncture) to name either technology as a "for sure" winner. Rates will drop on xDSL and the technology is already out there by companies such as TUTS... where no one has to come out to your house.. they just have to "flip a switch" at the phone company, and you have the xDSL technology ready to go in your house. (unlike cable companies at THIS point) It will be interesting either way and I think for the short term (1-3 years) both will win... Mark