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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (103383)	2/20/1999 8:10:00 PM
From: On the QT	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Hi Mike, Giving the choice of do it because Daddy says so, or consider doing it because of those reasons (enhancing self determination and direction), you and I know which path we would choose. I rather be dealing with criteria that is at least identifiable and understood. In this fashion we can either improve on our point of view and or improve on the criteria. I do give due respect to studies that are reliable, verifiable and germane to my needs. Even in the cases where one accepts that study as "valid for me" using all available precautions or at least understanding the limitations of that which we accept as workable, I recognize that information can be incorrectly correlated and interpreted and implemented. Sometimes in the past, many people were working with something that was at that time valid for most (the earth is flat) and only a very few were working with what is valid for me (the Earth is somewhat round) At best under certain conditions what was valid then (somewhat round) is valid now (somewhat round). However if it too widely understood and appreciated it can lose any edge it originally provided. In the market when we get that kind of generally known and accepted agreement it is usually already reflected in the price of the stock. I like dealing with the fuzzy and arbitrary (sometimes amongst the fools gold there is precious and under appreciated value). Lately however, I find myself getting too involved with the company and that which was generally known and accepted by the many. Lost my perspective. Married the company rather than courted the stock . For me it was a short term mistake, made in a long term love affair! As you intimated it is times like that when we lose sight of the value of opposing points of view. Not healthy for growth. I suspect I will make more mistakes before it is all finished for me. However I have this "knowing" if you will , that given my overall past performance, I will continue to do rather well. ; ) You know Dave Feldman? Think he co authored a book called Would have, Could have, Should have. (Close enough.) Talented writer! Didn't know he also posted on SI. Your point regarding average mutual and win expectations is well taken. A player collecting 30% of the time @ 6.00 average mutual will lose .10 on a dollar another collecting 20% of the time @9.00 will still lose .10 on a dollar. If however the player were skilled enough to collect 25% of the time at an average mutual of 9.00 the player would earn .125 on a dollar:) Collecting 5% of the time at an average mutual of 45.00 would return a profit of .125 as well;But the strain on the BR ( gambler's ruin ) would be too unwieldy and could cause tap outs even with an edge! I understand your preference for the exotics. While the takeout is greater, the payoffs when eliminating false favorites (read grossly overbet horses)afford the best chances for overlay success. Barry Meadows and Dick Mitchell as well as others produced some interesting work in that area. Sounds like you and Warren Buffet like to swing for the fences and go for all 4 bags! Was it not the Babe who while hitting his home run record also " hit" a new record for strike outs? You take the accolades and the barbs rather well! Regards, QT