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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (48113)	2/21/1999 11:34:00 AM
From: BGR	Respond to of 132070

Tommaso, I was thinking more in the lines of dinner, but I will give breakfast a thought. Mr. Templeton's statement is a simple rehash of the inane advice given to investors since the pre-historic ages, to buy low and sell high, avoiding altogether the problems associated with predicting highs and lows. As Mark Twain so aptly noted, prediction remains a risky business, especially when it concerns the future. If it is indeed so simple, perhaps we would have scores of other John Templetons, which we didn't. So, caveat emptor. As for that elusive concept called value, valuation at present is more of an art than a science. Discounted cash flow is one metric used and seems to have reasonably strong basis. Personally, I prefer to leave valuation to the market and would like to know your model. I hope it is not based on gauging market sentiment by unscientific surveys of SI posts. By long term, I mean a significant number of market timing exercises by a significant sample space of traders. I am reluctant to define the entire experiment which is a time consuming effort. But you may look up the hundreds of studies done on this topic. -BGR.