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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KY who wrote (222)	2/20/1999 5:56:00 PM
From: Teflon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Kevin Young, As I stated earlier, my portfolio is as follows: Current Holdings: MSFT...held for 6 years EMC....held for 3 years ATHM...held for 2 months SUNW...held for 1 year GE.....held for 1 year AOL....held for 1 year CSCO...held for 2 years I trade options on MSFT once or twice a year when there is easy $$$ to be made (currently in that sweet spot), and I have owned other Gorilla type stocks before (Coke, Gillete, Dell) for substantial lengths of time, but I have sold out of them as of today. I am a technology guy who likes technology returns. They will continue to beat the S&P and Dow going forward. I am willing to discuss any of these or other items you wish, provided I have something of value to add. I gave the MSFT board a brief trial, but I am concerned about that group as a whole. I am deciding whether this board is the place to spend 100% of my time or whether I will just return to my "reader" status. The other Boards are fun to read, in their finest moments! Thanks, Teflon

To: KY who wrote (222)	2/20/1999 8:07:00 PM
From: JRH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Any value investors out there sniffing around at SAP? Yea, I have been looking at it, but I am a little uneasy about it still. I dumped what I had in early November 98 because I had tuition bills to pay. However, I have been contemplating picking some up again because it just seems too cheap and there is a chance that they will come back strong. The only problem I have can be summarized with one word: saturation. All the big bucks for SAP came from the gigantic multi-nationals. And now they almost all have SAP's software installed. Now, the argument can be made that this is a positive for the company because, as an Oracle rep once told me, installed market is key for future upgrades. However, the opposite can be said as well. I don't believe that they will be making as much money because upgrades are a fraction of the huge costs and employee allocation it takes to install it in the first place! And since the big market is close to be saturated, they have to go for small-mid sized companies. And, quite frankly, from what I hear, an SAP implementation could spell financial disaster if something goes haywire for a company that does not have the savings accounts of a Coke or Gillette.

To: KY who wrote (222)	2/20/1999 8:17:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Kevin, Any value investors out there sniffing around at SAP? The stock is still trading trading at about twice its expected growth rate. Using traditional value investors' models, I don't think SAP will ever meet the value criteria. That's typical of gorillas. I have cash set aside to buy SAP, but I'm not yet ready. Most of the ERP vendors are having tough times lately. I realize that the market has already dropped SAP's stock 50% since the debut on the NYSE, but I think there's a good chance the market will get downright dismal about ERP vendors. I hope to see the PE multiple at 1.5 times growth, or lower. It may or may not happen, but that's my entry strategy until I see indicators telling me the multiple will never get that low. --Mike Buckley