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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Robinett who wrote (5314)	2/20/1999 6:55:00 PM
From: RTev	Respond to of 41369

I'm still not sure exactly how AOL fits into the slowly-coming broadband universe, so I'd love to hear comments on that. Does AOL need to do something big like a merger to fit into this possible future? Or does the current business model allow AOL to gracefully slide into it? It seems to me that the problem with answering that is that AOL has wisely decided to hedge its bets by becoming several different things at once. Among them:      OLS -- Online service provider. This is where the 16 million subscribers come in. They use proprietary software to dial into modems owned or leased by AOL which then connect to a proprietary network which gives them proprietary content (using proprietary protocols). There were a dozen or more of them in the 80s but AOL is just about the only OLS left.      ISP -- Internet service provider. In addition to the OLS stream, AOL gives each user a temporary IP address that allows the user to get onto the internet using any IP tools available (but with preference given to AOL-supplied tools). There are hundreds of competitors in this market.      ICP -- Internet content provider. Anyone with access to the internet and with the proper IP tools (which are usually supplied as a standard part of current computer setups) can access and interact with content provided by an ICP. AOL has a strong presence in this market with the soon-to-be-acquired Netcenter, with ICQ, DigitalCity, aol.com, and through cross-agreements with other ICPs. There are thousands of competitors in this market. Does AOL need to maintain all those parts to be successful in the future?

To: Steve Robinett who wrote (5314)	2/20/1999 10:08:00 PM
From: robert duke	Respond to of 41369

Wow, are you a short?

To: Steve Robinett who wrote (5314)	2/20/1999 10:14:00 PM
From: RocketMan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41369

1) The finalized NetScape deal will have no additional effect on the share price--there's nothing new about it. Steve, although there is nothing new to the deal, there is institutional money on the sidelines waiting to see if and how AOL manages to digest Netscape. I don't think any analysts seriously question whether the acquisition will be finalized, but there are questions regarding such things as how the media and technology portions of their respective businesses are split, how much of netscape's web-based models are absorbed/merged into aol's proprietary systems, how the business models match up, etc etc. Until more is known about these things, much of the (non-S&P) institutional money will not buy into the risk of uncertainty. JMHO

To: Steve Robinett who wrote (5314)	2/21/1999 10:19:00 AM
From: ChinuSFO	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 41369

Steve R. Good post. Keep it coming The recent slide in the NASDAQ, in my opinion are investors taking profit. There is no change in the fundamentals of the stock market to be the cause for the slide. Otherwise, how do you explain the slide in CSCO after they reported good earnings. Or the sluggishness in AMAT after they reported better than expected earnings and a blowout order backlog and bookings. SO THERE ARE INVESTORS WITH MONEY WAITING IN THE WINGS. After AOL splits at start of business on Tuesday 2/23, it would present these investors with a buying opportunity. They would view the split as a drop in stock price by half. To a prospective first time buyer of AOL, the split is NOT as complicated as "nine 1 dollar bills....." as outlined in your post. Thus far AOL has been the darling of small investors like you and me. The big funds got into AOL on or after Jan 1, 1999. (S&P 500) So the big funds will jump in at or near the post split price, expected to be around 75 to 85, instead of 160 (December 31 1998, after hours) Lastly, @Home is a speculation. I mentioned in my post that it is a rumor. But again, AOL management has a good understanding of their business and a clear view of where they want to be. How many of us would have believed a rumor that a company such as AOL whose claim to fame has been "the cartoon software business", would be acquiring a high tech company such as Netscape. So anything is possible as far as AOL management is concerned. @Home!! Why not? Isn't Prodigy, Mindspring, PSINet waiting in the wings to grab AOL's business? To prevent that AOL has to move. So I would give some credibility to the @Home rumor (about 10%?) Chinmoy