To: DoubleOddBuck who wrote (651 ) 2/21/1999 5:33:00 AM From: Sid Turtlman Respond to of 2513
DoubleOB: Valid points. The issue of current P/E or current price to sales should be unimportant in deciding the merits of DCHT as an investment, assuming that there is enough funding to finance the company's growth. For example, the recognized leader in PEM fuel cells, Ballard, has a multi-billion dollar market cap despite sales of well under $50,000,000. This is based upon hoped for prospects in the future, without a worry in the slightest about financing - the company has a few hundred million in the bank. Ballard may or may not succeed in achieving the technical goals and cost targets for its product, but at least one doesn't have to worry about them going broke first. My concern with DCHT remains the financing. Otherwise, one might justify a much higher market cap. That higher price might or might not be a mistake, depending on how the company did, but it wouldn't necessarily be crazy. The only thing about yesterday's website update that increases my confidence about the cash situation is the claim that insiders have lent DCHT perhaps $400,000 that doesn't have to be repaid any time soon. Maybe the insiders are all very wealthy people who won't mind fronting however many more millions it takes to develop something proprietary in PEM cells. As I pointed out some time ago, PEM technology is a real easy entry business - anyone can build one, and that tells you nothing about whether they will ever make and sell them at a profit. Unless it is counting on financial angels, I don't see the source of the company's confidence that it has ample financing to handle what it hopes to achieve this year. Even with the raw material and component inventory on hand and paid for, they still have to pay the workers, the rent, and the trucking company before their customers will pay them. I fear there might be an ignorance of accounting so deep that they don't realize this yet. But if rich friends are always there with more long term loans, or it does raise additional money, DCHT might well get over the hump. As to the effort I am putting into this, it is no effort. I can do this stuff in my sleep. Dealing with Mr. Oshinsky is an effort, but trying to understand a company on the basis of limited information is like putting together a puzzle - it is fun.