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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (41526)	2/20/1999 8:55:00 PM
From: Impristine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

if we told you, we would have to eat you...

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (41526)	2/21/1999 12:08:00 AM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Understanding Amazon and other Internet stocks has been difficult because there is so much new: 1] The Internet is still fairly new. More people are constantly becoming aware of it and going on-line for the first time. 2] Internet brokerages have had a tremendous influence - making investment more like a game or Vegas. 3] The post cold war liquidity bubble is not unprecedented but is unusual. TA works very well for the net stocks at the extremes. Between the extremes the chance news item or momentary shift in sentiment can turn the TA around. Between the major moves it is best to either stay on the sidelines or speculate with a hair trigger finger - don't wait to analyze very much if things turn against you, just get the hell out of your position. FA is out unless you are an ANAL willing to make a giant leap of faith in divining the future of these companies 5 or 10 years out - the length of time it will take to justify the current price of some stocks. Part of an analysis of Amazon should consider the potential for further "hype factor". Amazon now has loan commitments of about $1.8 billion. Maybe they took a lot of the money simply because it was thrown at them. But it can be expected that Amazon will make acquisitions, new investments, major expansion efforts and invest in new agreements (buy business) that is likely to be treated as positive. Because investors are focused on the future potential for earnings and ignore thoughts that the benefits of spending lavishly now may not result in fat profit latter, this inevitable news will probably cause the stock to move up. But Internet and ecommerce growth will slow from the rapid pace we saw last quarter and the momentum has cooled down. I agree that more upward movement is likely next week. The volume and trading action on Friday was fairly impressive. But I think the trend over the next six months will remain down. The only scientific way to analyze Amazon and other net stocks I can imagine would include such things as charting of the growth of Internet users, total on-line sales and new on-line brokerage accounts. Other Indicators might be the number of times the Internet companies are mentioned on the evening news and major finance publications. If you could view the rise in these "indicators" over the past several months, I think they would parallel that of the net stocks. And when that momentum starts slowing down then the net stocks are likely to at least stall. My mental analysis of these factors, based on what I read in trade journals and financial papers, leads me to think that 1999 will remain a robust year for Internet speculation. The stocks will continue down after a rebound but many may finish the year at or near new highs. By next year things will get dicier.