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To: Bill Zeman who wrote (4813)2/20/1999 8:59:00 PM
From: Rex Dwyer  Respond to of 60323
 
It gets even more confusing because Toshiba might make CompactFlash cards as well as SmartMedia.

There also may be some licensing of other technology patents, but the ATA Solid State drive is the juicy one that no one has gotten around yet. Lexar thinks they have. Toshiba, Intel, Samsung, Hitachi, and others have not, and are paying.

The terms of the license agreements are top secret. I would bet that the payment terms decrease in percentage as time goes on.

Rex
($24 5/8)



To: Bill Zeman who wrote (4813)2/20/1999 9:02:00 PM
From: Rex Dwyer  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 60323
 
SNDK current Valuation attempt:

SNDK is both an IP company (royalties) and a semiconductor company (they make chips and cards). They compete against the big boys in the semi business. The IP business is a cash cow. The semi business needs component price firmness, which is happening now, to be profitable. The sum total is SNDK.

The IP business is worth about $17 per share by discounting future cash flows at a rate of 7% to 8% or so.

Their Semi business has been losing money, but would be worth $22 per share if they traded at 5x sales like MU (Micron Tech). At 3x sales, it would be worth $13 1/4.

Sum it up $17+$22=$39 at 5x product revs.
or $17+$13.25 = $30.2 at 3x product revs.

Rex
($24 5/8)