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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: geoffrey Wren who wrote (7661)	2/21/1999 1:47:00 AM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 10921

Geoff, The guest was Bill Fleckenstein. He runs a hedge fund. He's been bearish and wrong for more than a decade. It's unlikely that he'd move a single stock let alone a sector. Anyone know what report he was referring to about corporate purchase plans, and whether he is making a fair inference about future business from that report? Bill was referring to increased PC buying related to Y2K programs during the first half of the year and his expectation that this would slow down substantially in the 2nd half of the year. It's just as likely that Companies will discover that their MIS departments won't deliver the promised fixes and be forced to add to their planned spending in order to bypass unresolved Y2K glitches. Personally, I think market timing is a losing proposition whether one uses Y2K to justify it, a bubble, or whatever other excuse the market timer needs to rationalize long term under performance. JMHO, Ian.

To: geoffrey Wren who wrote (7661)	2/21/1999 11:29:00 AM
From: Jess Beltz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Geoffrey, let me just add a few comments to Ian's response, which is both thoughtful and insightful. You may ask individuals on the Cymer thread what they think of Fleckenstein's comments. I think it is enough to remember that Flecky makes money by shorting stocks. His "portfolio" therefore prospers in times of fear in the markets. When a climate of fear can be inaugurated, or continued, it is to his distinct advantage. One does not have to look far to find plenty of fairly knowledgeable sources (I subscribe to Infrastructure, but there are many others) whose intermediate to longer term view on the market of Integrated Circuits and semiconductors is very positive. Fleck's viewpoint could only be correct if society were really to step away from technology and its upgrades. Do you really think that likely? jess.