To: MileHigh who wrote (16188 ) 2/21/1999 2:14:00 PM From: MileHigh Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 93625
Sunday February 21, 12:59 pm Eastern Time Exuberance, oasis, lottery - new Fed zinger coming? By Marjorie Olster NEW YORK, Feb 21 (Reuters) - If financial markets speak an impenetrable language all their own, then Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan is their Shakespeare. The venerated leader of the world's most powerful central bank is master of an opaque economic jargon which he calls ''Fedspeak.'' During his 11-year tenure at the helm of the Fed, he has coined countless catchphrases that reverberate in the lexicon of world markets for months or even years. Now investors around the world are nervously waiting to see if the Delphic Greenspan will unleash a new market-jolting zinger that will hint at the future direction of interest rates in a major policy speech scheduled to begin Tuesday. Greenspan is to deliver his regular semi-annual testimony to Congress Tuesday and Wednesday, opening a window onto his current thoughts on the economy and monetary policy. Though he is famed for his convoluted sentences which defy diagramming, when Greenspan mumbles, markets often tremble. His control over U.S. interest rates can determine how much money flows into markets and in what direction they move. In speeches over the past few years, Greenspan sent up red flags with phrases like ''irrational exuberance'' to warn about speculative excesses in the stock market or cautioned about recession risks by saying the United States cannot remain an ''oasis of prosperity'' in a sea of global turmoil. Those quotes quickly became buzzwords among the scores of economists and market analysts who hang on every word the chairman utters and read between each line to try to devine policy shifts. They also signaled imminent changes in monetary policy, at least for the chosen few who understood Fedspeak. The irrational exuberance remark in December 1996 foreshadowed an interest rate hike less than four months later. That move in March 1997 was the first policy change in more than two years and reversed the direction of rates. It also touched off heated debate about the propriety of a Fed chairman commenting on movements in stock prices. The ''oasis of prosperity'' comment early last September came a few weeks before the Fed embarked on the first of three rapid-fire rate cuts last fall, aimed at preventing a credit crunch and shielding the U.S. economy from turmoil overseas. Now whenever a new piece of data shows the remarkable resilience of the U.S. economy, Wall Street economists proclaim: ''We are still an oasis of prosperity.'' Likewise, irrational exuberance has been trotted out over and over again in recent months as concerns grew over the speculative fervor in the U.S. stock market. In that regard, Greenspan coined one of his newest watchwords -- the ''lottery premium'' -- to describe the frenzied run-up in Internet stock prices lately. It is probably no coincidence the American Stock Exchange's Internet stocks index(^IIX - news), which hit a record a couple days after that Jan. 28 speech, has since fallen 15 percent. The Fed's chief also popularized the concept of ''taking out an insurance policy'' to describe rate moves that are meant to be preemptive strikes against inflation or recession. In 1991 he said the economy was trying to advance in the face of ''50-mile-an-hour headwinds'' to illustrate the struggle to pull out of recession in the face of enormous hurdles. ''Alan Greenspan thinks of himself as a Renaissance man, which he may well be. He likes to use the language to its fullest effect,'' said Paul Kasriel, chief U.S. economist at Northern Trust and a former Fed economist. ''There is a bit of an artist in him, although you wouldn't know it. He is musically inclined and he might feel he is poetically inclined. He prides himself on wordsmithing.'' Greenspan knows the world is hanging on his every word and he is trying to influence market expectations and send signals, Kasriel said. Sometimes, he is also sending up trial balloons. ''He can't say exactly what he means. He has to use analogies and allusions. No central banker likes to be forthright,'' Kasriel said. There is a built-in deniability in ambiguity, he added. Greenspan's calculated obfuscation has become a butt of jokes by colleagues at the Fed. ''Someone once said they wouldn't want the chairman to have a job writing the instructions for assembling lawn furniture,'' Richmond Fed President Alfred Broaddus said a few years back. ''What you get when you cross an economist and the Godfather is an offer you can't understand,'' he quipped. Even Greenspan's wife, NBC national news correspondent Andrea Mitchell, whom he wed in 1997, once joked that she did not understand his first few marriage proposals. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------