If you are chart reader mention that ahead. You don't have a clue about this industry, you seem to talk about a company by looking at stars and charts. Please do some fundamental research before making fundamental comments. I could care less for your technical expertise. Every Tom, Dick and Harry have become technical analysts and day traders these days. There are very few who can see the future and invest on fundamentals and future.
Let's assume for a second that you know it all in the telecommunications industry, and you are a super star analyst of all fundamental data available....
Indeed, let's also assume that you have a PHD in Economics, (much like the resident one), and that you are a super star technical analyst...
Let's assume all that.
Even then, you, nor anybody else, can not tell what the future price of Lucent or any other stock will be with 100 % certainty as there are many variables that could destroy whatever prediction, you may have.
Based on fundamental, technical data, or otherwise.
The best one can do is express one's opinion, as it was done in Judy's case and as others before her.
Your stated opinion has no more value than anybody else's.
But it is the pompous arse style that I object, as you can not predict what the price action will be with 100 % certainty either.
Whether you like it or not, technical analysis has a value in determining the allocation of investment or speculation resources of many individuals... successfully.
In short, technical analysis is the attempt to recognize the repetition of patterns of price action of a specific stock/commodity, going forward, including its trend (up/down).
There are hundreds of indicators/systems, some, more successful than others, but in general they are effective. However, the bottom line is how pro-efficient each individual becomes in using said systems.
Likewise, fundamental data has its value in assessing the viability of the investment and/or speculation in a specific company.
However, in reading your post you do not seem to be interested in questioning Judy's source of information nor reasoning. Rather, you seem to have the pompous style that seem to be characteristic of the Lucent thread, already evident in prior instances. In your case you imply that, at best, technical analysis has no value.
I object to such, for a very simple reason, I happen to be invested in Lucent. I am interested in both the technical aspect and the fundamental as well, and I want to know what opinions exist out there. In the end, it is I that make the final decision to buy, sell, sell short, hold or stay put. You may not be interested in what Judy or others may have to say.... if so, don't read it.
So chill out and go smell the roses, you may not care what others think, but I want to listen to other opinions.
By the way..... your reference to:
"Every Tom, Dick, and Harry becoming technical analyst and day traders..."
Funny you say that... as I have always thought that it is your regular "Tom Dick and Harry" that seem to be the "proverbial long term holder", that so many claim they are...
If they are really "long term holders".... well, hell, why is it that they worry about the damned thing and are here reading these "investment" boards....
I thought that a long term investor would not worry about those mundane little details... instead they should be reading more fundamental stuff, such as the company's annual reports...
As for day traders and momentum players... don't discount them as in some instances, they are the ones that assist in giving Lucent the lofty prices we have had from time to time.... not to mention the liquidity.
Evidently you do not care for technical analysis, and that's fine by me, that does not mean there is no value to such studies.
Oh! and in case you have not noticed, there is a "next" button at the bottom of each and every post, or is that too technical for you ? You ought to try it more often, it is a rewarding and .... er... how you say... long term experience.
Although I read fundamental reports, some newsletters, etc. I know little about the telecom industry, in spite of such shortcoming, I have benefited greatly investing in Lucent. While I do not use the stars...(as you imply anyone using t/a does), Yes, I have used charts to determine, entry/exit points, and the use of the sale of call options, spreads etc. Profitably.
And you know what ? All that has absolutely NOTHING TO DO with the telecom industry.... and I could not care less either, why ? because the name of the game in the stock market is to MAKE MONEY, not to become an armchair expert in a specific company or industry.... that's the job of PHD's. (and yes, I know that PhD is spelt PhD, except for the resident PHD one).
Another advantage of technical analysis is that you can apply such knowledge to ANY stock.
Whereas if you use fundamental knowledge, exclusively.... you would have to become a near expert in every industry you invest.... I believe that could hinder your... "diversification".
Lastly... I find very hard to believe that your regular "Tom, Dick, and Harry", (as you refer them), would even begin to understand technical analysis, it seems to me they are more in tune with the Beavis and Butthead crew. I am sure you know what I mean... fundamentally, of course. |
